Hello in this new year of 2014.
If you want to see latest predictions of top analysts (including me), please visit the new blog, USBOPredictions2014.blogspot.com.
Here you find predictions from 2013 only.
Thank you!
Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 ---> USBOPredictions2014
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
2013 12 25 – 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, The Wolf of Wall Street
Okay: that was the second-to-last weekend of this year. Anchorman 2 went okay, would go better if didn't open on Wednesday. These two days drove a lot of money off the weekend. American Hustle went okay, proving that Ms. Lawrence still needs to improve her charm on audience. Saving Mr. Banks went okay for this type movie, I shot it right. Walking with Dinosaurs was a joke. I still like the posters, though, very interesting anectode :)
I also got right the limited opening of Inside Llewyn Davis. Looks like I do dig dramas.
-----------------------------------------------
KEANU REEVE_ AND THE QUE_T TO FIND THE MI__ING _E_
This one, 47 Ronin, is an action PG-13 movie, from Universal.
I like the snake lady from the trailer. I like Keanu's beard. I don't think this movie is needed in the marketplace. If it was based on a famous literature book or on a popular comic book, it could stand a chance.
Two/three years ago the movie version of Tekken emerged (Tekken is perceived as the best martial arts game). It enjoyed a short limited run and then went to home market. The latest movie of Mr. Reeves, Man of Tai Chi, met the same fate. Why?
Kung fu, dragons, swords: it feels like a children's tale. Pirates, superheroes, giant robots fighting aliens -- these stories are grounded in real locations. Americans are one of top practical nations in the world, they resonate with that type of practicality, responsible fun. This movie doesn't deliver, it is reflected in my shot.
Shots:
$ 17,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 13,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,91 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2689 theaters, $ 3686 per theater)
$ 9,41 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2689 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (doesn't top 10 mln)
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this movie.
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't make a solid shot (between $15-25M).
-----------------------------------------------
AN ARRIVAL 20 YEARS LATE
This one, Grudge Match, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.
A sentimental approach is probably the second thing, after enjoying children's tales with live actors, Americans don't want to admit openly. This year we got lots of proofs for that: The Last Stand, A Good Day to Die Hard, Escape Plan. I think this movie will open in a financial middle of them. It won't be low, because it doesn't feel forced. Both Stallone and de Niro look happy (as in the poster above), this joy should drive some fans into theaters. Of course, it would do a lot better 20 years ago, when these gentlemen were in a better shape.
Shots:
$ 15,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 15,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13,59 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2838 theaters, $ 4787 per theater)
$ 13,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this movie.
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't make a solid shot (between $15-25M).
-----------------------------------------------
DOES A SOCIETY EVER CHANGE? A CULTURAL ESSAY, OF SORT
This one, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.
In 1947, just after the Second World War, people lived in a great hurry and tension. The world was throwing away a war burden, economy sprung up, the Russian Bear got his head up. Sex sold, men daydreamt about movie girls.
In 2013, just after the financial crash of 2009, people lived in a great hurry and tension. The world was throwing away a crisis burden, economy sprung up, the China Dragon got his head up. Sex sold, men daydreamt about movie and tv girls.
In 1947, movies served as the only source of girls.
In 2013, we don't need to climb a mountain, drive a race car at 100 mph, swim a river full of piranhas. We have internet. We can blog. We daydream in social media.
This movie is about sentiment as much as the previous one. I predict a similar but lower opening. Why lower? Comedy is more interesting, easier to sell, than high brow adventure movie.
Shots:
$ 24,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln -- Box Office team
$ 19,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 19 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 17,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 17 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 16 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 15,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 14,9 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 14 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12,76 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2909 theaters, $ 4388 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10,18 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2909 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)
Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, didn't shoot for this movie.
-----------------------------------------------
I HAVE JUST TOLD THEM A PERSIAN GULF INVESTOR BOUGHT THE COMPANY
This one, The Wolf of Wall Street, is a drama R movie, from Paramount.
This is another movie of Oscars' sucker season. That audience should be a steady one, and go see all movies that participate in an Awards' race this time. So I simply copied the opening of American Hustle, then added a bit as a polite bow to Scorsese and di Caprio.
Shots:
$ 24,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 24,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 23,1 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 23 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 23 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 22,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 22 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 21 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 20,48 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2537 theaters, $ 8072 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 18,36 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2537 theaters, $ 7238 per theater)
Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, didn't shoot for this movie.
-----------------------------------------------
I also got right the limited opening of Inside Llewyn Davis. Looks like I do dig dramas.
This week we have four openings. Two more movies have been considered (Justin Bieber's Belive, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom), but they open in less than 1000 theaters. Or, they include Bieber.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
FINALLY: Official numbers!
Paramount finally released official numbers of their movies.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
FINALLY: Official numbers!
Paramount finally released official numbers of their movies.
-----------------------------------------------
KEANU REEVE_ AND THE QUE_T TO FIND THE MI__ING _E_
This one, 47 Ronin, is an action PG-13 movie, from Universal.
I like the snake lady from the trailer. I like Keanu's beard. I don't think this movie is needed in the marketplace. If it was based on a famous literature book or on a popular comic book, it could stand a chance.
Two/three years ago the movie version of Tekken emerged (Tekken is perceived as the best martial arts game). It enjoyed a short limited run and then went to home market. The latest movie of Mr. Reeves, Man of Tai Chi, met the same fate. Why?
Kung fu, dragons, swords: it feels like a children's tale. Pirates, superheroes, giant robots fighting aliens -- these stories are grounded in real locations. Americans are one of top practical nations in the world, they resonate with that type of practicality, responsible fun. This movie doesn't deliver, it is reflected in my shot.
Shots:
$ 17,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 13,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,91 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2689 theaters, $ 3686 per theater)
$ 9,41 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2689 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (doesn't top 10 mln)
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't make a solid shot (between $15-25M).
-----------------------------------------------
AN ARRIVAL 20 YEARS LATE
This one, Grudge Match, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.
A sentimental approach is probably the second thing, after enjoying children's tales with live actors, Americans don't want to admit openly. This year we got lots of proofs for that: The Last Stand, A Good Day to Die Hard, Escape Plan. I think this movie will open in a financial middle of them. It won't be low, because it doesn't feel forced. Both Stallone and de Niro look happy (as in the poster above), this joy should drive some fans into theaters. Of course, it would do a lot better 20 years ago, when these gentlemen were in a better shape.
Shots:
$ 15,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 15,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13,59 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2838 theaters, $ 4787 per theater)
$ 13,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 12 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,02 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2838 theaters, $ 2474 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 6 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,02 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2838 theaters, $ 2474 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 6 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't make a solid shot (between $15-25M).
-----------------------------------------------
DOES A SOCIETY EVER CHANGE? A CULTURAL ESSAY, OF SORT
This one, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.
In 1947, just after the Second World War, people lived in a great hurry and tension. The world was throwing away a war burden, economy sprung up, the Russian Bear got his head up. Sex sold, men daydreamt about movie girls.
In 2013, just after the financial crash of 2009, people lived in a great hurry and tension. The world was throwing away a crisis burden, economy sprung up, the China Dragon got his head up. Sex sold, men daydreamt about movie and tv girls.
In 1947, movies served as the only source of girls.
In 2013, we don't need to climb a mountain, drive a race car at 100 mph, swim a river full of piranhas. We have internet. We can blog. We daydream in social media.
This movie is about sentiment as much as the previous one. I predict a similar but lower opening. Why lower? Comedy is more interesting, easier to sell, than high brow adventure movie.
Shots:
$ 24,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln -- Box Office team
$ 19,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 19 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 17,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 17 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 16 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 15,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 14,9 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 14 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12,76 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2909 theaters, $ 4388 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10,18 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2909 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
I HAVE JUST TOLD THEM A PERSIAN GULF INVESTOR BOUGHT THE COMPANY
This one, The Wolf of Wall Street, is a drama R movie, from Paramount.
This is another movie of Oscars' sucker season. That audience should be a steady one, and go see all movies that participate in an Awards' race this time. So I simply copied the opening of American Hustle, then added a bit as a polite bow to Scorsese and di Caprio.
Shots:
$ 24,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 24,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24,1 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 23,8 mln -- Box Office team$ 23,1 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 23 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 23 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 22,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 22 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 21 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 20,48 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2537 theaters, $ 8072 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 18,36 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2537 theaters, $ 7238 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
2013 12 20 – American Hustle, Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, Inside Llewyn Davis, Saving Mr. Banks, Walking with Dinosaurs
Cold: that is the word to describe movie audience this December. The Hobbit 2 didn't get redemption from the 30 minutes dwarf eating scene, Madea's fans also hardened their hearts to an invitation bell for a Christmas meeting.
A word of wisdom: check twice the way you go bump. If I went down $ 2000 per theater with The Hobbit 2, instead of going up, I would nail it.
But this week that trickiness will go away, because people want be fooled. This holiday spirit of goodwill and the second wave of Oscar suckers' season will make quite significant the total weekend number for five wide openings.
Or... this is the last weekend before Christmas, so traffic at stores' parking lots will be enormous. I wonder will it hurt family movies only? I'd like not, because... and blood drips from my fingers as I type these words... two overrated movies look into quite nice openings.
This weekend we have five openings.
Yes, I do take into account Walking with Dinosaurs. Just see posters and you will know why!
-----------------------------------------------
A SUBTLE IRONY OR AN HONEST WARNING? YOU DECIDE WHAT THE TITLE MEANS!
In a perfect world I see it bombs just like The Counselor did. Lot of stars. Media hype. Aaaaand big splatter on a concrete sidewalk.
In this world... drip, drip, drip... it's going to be as big as The Great Gatsby, one of the movies time forgot.
Shots:
$ 31,09 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2507 theaters, $ 12,400 per theater)
$ 22 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 20 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 19,11 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2507 theaters, $ 7621 per theater)
$ 19 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 19 mln -- Box Office team
$ 18,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 18 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 17,9 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
-----------------------------------------------
$ 17 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 16,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 16,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 16 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
IF THEY PRODUCED IT AS A TWO-PARTER, THE SECOND ONE WOULD BE NAMED MOUSTACHE KILLS AGAIN
This one, Anchorman 2. The Legend Continues, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Paramount.
I can appreciate this movie as a legitimate comedy. I don't enjoy the comic idea, since I haven't grown up in a world plagued by talk-show and news tv hosts. But I can easily understand a lot of people dig it.
PG-13 comedies year after year provide mediocre openings per theater. Rarely they get over $ 10,000 per theater. Anchorman 2 will achieve it, thanks to The Moustache, but the pillow will be small.
$ 46 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 45 mln -- Box Office team
$ 40,4 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 40,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 40 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 37,57 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3507 theaters, $ 10,714 per theater)
$ 37,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 33,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 33 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 32 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 31 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
-----------------------------------------------
$ 26,78 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3507 theaters, $ 7635 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
A DRAMA BEFORE CHRISTMAS -- DOES IT SELL LIKE HOT POTATOES?
This one, Inside Llewyn Davis, is a drama R movie, from CBS Films.
R dramas occupy the same war trench as PG-13 comedies. These are mediocre movies, in financial terms, that don't break into a mass media circuit. This movie lacks star names (especially it lacks Jennifer Lawrence), so I think most people who wanted to see it, they already did. I decided to go a little bigger, because the Coens haven't touch their cinematic eyes.
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7518 per theater -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013
$ 7307 per theater -- the official weekend number per theater of the movie
-----------------------------------------------
IT GOES IN 148 THEATERS ONLY, SO WON'T BE INCLUDED IN THIS WEEK'S SHOTS.
-----------------------------------------------
A DRAMA BEFORE CHRISTMAS -- DOES IT SELL LIKE HOT POTATOES?
This one, Saving Mr. Banks, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Walt Disney.
The question stays the same as for Inside Llewyn Davis. The movie is totally different, more positive, warmer, more Christmassy. But as a lot of PG-13 dramas before, it lacks true audience. It's not a movie for kids, and this time of year parents are either busy with shopping and cooking, or they take kids to see dinosaurs. No easy money then.
$ 14 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 14 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 13 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,4 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 12 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 12 mln -- Box Office team
$ 11,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 11 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 9,9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 9,35 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2110 theaters, $ 4429 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8,86 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2110 theaters, $ 4200 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
SMALL, BIG, LARGE, EFFIN' LARGE
This one, Walking with Dinosaurs, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.
A word of wisdom: check twice the way you go bump. If I went down $ 2000 per theater with The Hobbit 2, instead of going up, I would nail it.
Or... this is the last weekend before Christmas, so traffic at stores' parking lots will be enormous. I wonder will it hurt family movies only? I'd like not, because... and blood drips from my fingers as I type these words... two overrated movies look into quite nice openings.
This weekend we have five openings.
Yes, I do take into account Walking with Dinosaurs. Just see posters and you will know why!
-----------------------------------------------
A SUBTLE IRONY OR AN HONEST WARNING? YOU DECIDE WHAT THE TITLE MEANS!
This one, American Hustle, is a comedy R movie, from Sony.
In a perfect world I see it bombs just like The Counselor did. Lot of stars. Media hype. Aaaaand big splatter on a concrete sidewalk.
In this world... drip, drip, drip... it's going to be as big as The Great Gatsby, one of the movies time forgot.
Shots:
$ 31,09 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2507 theaters, $ 12,400 per theater)
$ 22 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 20 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 19,11 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2507 theaters, $ 7621 per theater)
$ 19 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 19 mln -- Box Office team
$ 18,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 18 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 17,9 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
-----------------------------------------------
$ 17 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 16,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 16,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 16 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------
IF THEY PRODUCED IT AS A TWO-PARTER, THE SECOND ONE WOULD BE NAMED MOUSTACHE KILLS AGAIN
This one, Anchorman 2. The Legend Continues, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Paramount.
I can appreciate this movie as a legitimate comedy. I don't enjoy the comic idea, since I haven't grown up in a world plagued by talk-show and news tv hosts. But I can easily understand a lot of people dig it.
PG-13 comedies year after year provide mediocre openings per theater. Rarely they get over $ 10,000 per theater. Anchorman 2 will achieve it, thanks to The Moustache, but the pillow will be small.
Shots:
$ 46 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 45 mln -- Box Office team
$ 40,4 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 40,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 40 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 37,57 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3507 theaters, $ 10,714 per theater)
$ 37,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 33,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 33 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 32 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 31 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
-----------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
A DRAMA BEFORE CHRISTMAS -- DOES IT SELL LIKE HOT POTATOES?
This one, Inside Llewyn Davis, is a drama R movie, from CBS Films.
R dramas occupy the same war trench as PG-13 comedies. These are mediocre movies, in financial terms, that don't break into a mass media circuit. This movie lacks star names (especially it lacks Jennifer Lawrence), so I think most people who wanted to see it, they already did. I decided to go a little bigger, because the Coens haven't touch their cinematic eyes.
My shot per theater:
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7518 per theater -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013
$ 7307 per theater -- the official weekend number per theater of the movie
-----------------------------------------------
IT GOES IN 148 THEATERS ONLY, SO WON'T BE INCLUDED IN THIS WEEK'S SHOTS.
-----------------------------------------------
This one, Saving Mr. Banks, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Walt Disney.
The question stays the same as for Inside Llewyn Davis. The movie is totally different, more positive, warmer, more Christmassy. But as a lot of PG-13 dramas before, it lacks true audience. It's not a movie for kids, and this time of year parents are either busy with shopping and cooking, or they take kids to see dinosaurs. No easy money then.
Shots:
$ 14 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 14 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 13 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,4 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 12 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 12 mln -- Box Office team
$ 11,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 11 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 9,9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 9,35 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2110 theaters, $ 4429 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8,86 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2110 theaters, $ 4200 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
SMALL, BIG, LARGE, EFFIN' LARGE
This one, Walking with Dinosaurs, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.
I can picture a dialogue between designers:
-- How much do we want to scare children?
-- It's about dinosaurs, but the hero is a really nice one. Let's all of them be small.
-- But the story needs some tension. One of them should be bigger than others.
-- Kids in Japan love large monsters. The teethy one should be like Godzilla. Tower the whole poster.
-- Since it's Japan, it need to pixellate his crotch with the sun.
-- And we have a winner here.
I can't stop laughing.
Shots:
$ 28,04 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3231 theaters, $ 8679 per theater)
$ 17 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 12,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 11,8 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 10 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 9 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 8,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 8,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 8 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,09 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3231 theaters, $ 2195 per theater)
$ 6,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this one.
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
2013 12 13 – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas
$ 2500 per theater -- this is my official number for any crap movie I will see. Especially thrillers, R dramas, R actions. An opportunity to play this out of my hand doesn't show itself this week, but the next one... I think it does.
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
$ 97 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 87,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 86,79 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3903 theaters, $ 22,237 per theater)
$ 82,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 80 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 78 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 74 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 73,65 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3903 theaters, $ 18,869 per theater)
$ 70,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 70 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
DOUBLE U-T-F THE DRAGON IS???
This one, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.
I rewatched the trailer of the first part of The Hobbit and found there following memorable moments:
* Galadriel at Rivendell,
* Bilbo fights trolls,
* Bilbo and Gollum.
Also running dwarves through various sceneries and from various beasts.
Not much for three hours of life, right?
As for the trailer for this movie:
* Bilbo and spiders in a wood,
* Evangeline Lilly, Lee Pace, Orlando Bloom (Elves always look good),
* the BurglaHobbit and the Dragon (we actually don't see the Dragon in the trailer, so I'm more than worried if he shows at all in this movie).
Also dwarves walking through various sceneries, and various characters (not just dwarves) fighting with various beasts.
Not much as well, right?
I didn't see the first one in a theater. After seeing the trailer I don't have the urge to see the second part in a theater. It may get a small bump compared to the first one's number, but it won't be bigger than $ 1000-2000 per theater.
* Galadriel at Rivendell,
* Bilbo fights trolls,
* Bilbo and Gollum.
Also running dwarves through various sceneries and from various beasts.
Not much for three hours of life, right?
As for the trailer for this movie:
* Bilbo and spiders in a wood,
* Evangeline Lilly, Lee Pace, Orlando Bloom (Elves always look good),
* the BurglaHobbit and the Dragon (we actually don't see the Dragon in the trailer, so I'm more than worried if he shows at all in this movie).
Also dwarves walking through various sceneries, and various characters (not just dwarves) fighting with various beasts.
Not much as well, right?
I didn't see the first one in a theater. After seeing the trailer I don't have the urge to see the second part in a theater. It may get a small bump compared to the first one's number, but it won't be bigger than $ 1000-2000 per theater.
Shots:
$ 97 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 87,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 86,79 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3903 theaters, $ 22,237 per theater)
$ 82,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 82 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 82 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 80 mln -- Box Office team$ 82 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 80 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 78 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 75,8 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 75 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop$ 74 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 73,65 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3903 theaters, $ 18,869 per theater)
$ 70,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 70 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
NEXT YEAR, A MADEA'S UNFORTUNATE LION TAMER CAREER, MAYBE?
This one, Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.
I watched all available previous trailer for Madea movies. I find this one the least interesting. I bet fans of characters in fat suit will drive to see this. They always do. Even if this movie consisted of 5 minutes of the fake-Santa-teases-children joke, and then 85 minutes of silence. This is exactly what the trailer advertises. It is a strange idea, but Mr. Perry probably knows what he is doing.
Bad Grandpa of this year opened with $ 9609. I'd like this movie would do a bit worse per theater. But it opens in 1000+ less theaters, so the crowd will be squeezed better.
Bad Grandpa of this year opened with $ 9609. I'd like this movie would do a bit worse per theater. But it opens in 1000+ less theaters, so the crowd will be squeezed better.
Shots:
$ 33 mln -- Box Office team
$ 31,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 31 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 30 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 30 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 30 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 29 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 28,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 27,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 27 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 25,4 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 21,61 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2194 theaters, $ 9849 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,01 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2194 theaters, $ 7296 per theater)
$ 31,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 31 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 30 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 30 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 30 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 29 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 28,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 27,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 27 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 25,4 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 21,61 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2194 theaters, $ 9849 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,01 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2194 theaters, $ 7296 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
2013 12 06 – Out of the Furnace
Like most things in life, the last weekend was a bad one and a good one in the same time. Out of 30 shots only two of them hit the 10 per cent bracket. Homefront got hit twice: by me, and by BoxOffice guys. My numbers for two other movies were the closest ones: for Frozen I shot too low, for Black Nativity I shot too high. The total weekend number for openings proved quite right again: the number stopped at $ 77,57M, the prediction was $ 70-75M.
This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official number!
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8,5 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 8 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 7,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7 mln -- BoxOffice team
$ 6,9 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 6,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 6,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 6,4 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 6,25 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2101 theaters, $ 2973 per theater)
$ 6 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 6 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
-----------------------------------------------
$ 5,22 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2101 theaters, $ 2485 per theater)
$ 5 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't shoot for this one.
This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official number!
-----------------------------------------------
(low voice) I'M BATMAN. (normal voice) DUDE, I'VE JUST FORGOTTEN THE MASK. CAN YOU TAKE MY WORD FOR IT?
This one, Out of the Furnace, is a drama R movie, from Relativity.
If I got loaded by playing Batman three times, I would do the same thing Christian Bale is doing: low budgeted and high concepted movies. I would also loved to touch Zoe Saldana, under sheets, in a fully professional way.
But Miss Saldana aside, this movie is as interesting as a wooden chair. The trailer offers no involvement for audience, and no reason for a lead character to do things he is doing. Jason Statham stood up the same mountain last week, but Homefront was an action movie, easy for mind, good for popcorn digestion. Here writer(s) tried a lot of different motives: working class, life after military, brotherly love, dying father. But nothing stood out.
Financially, R-rated dramas are sold by the male star in a seat of an actor (Mark Wahlberg in Gangster Squad, Chris Hemsworth in Rush) or of a director (Ben Affleck in The Town). Mr. Bale was a very good Batman, but he lacks true star power. I go with a low number per theater.
But Miss Saldana aside, this movie is as interesting as a wooden chair. The trailer offers no involvement for audience, and no reason for a lead character to do things he is doing. Jason Statham stood up the same mountain last week, but Homefront was an action movie, easy for mind, good for popcorn digestion. Here writer(s) tried a lot of different motives: working class, life after military, brotherly love, dying father. But nothing stood out.
Financially, R-rated dramas are sold by the male star in a seat of an actor (Mark Wahlberg in Gangster Squad, Chris Hemsworth in Rush) or of a director (Ben Affleck in The Town). Mr. Bale was a very good Batman, but he lacks true star power. I go with a low number per theater.
Shots:
$ 8,5 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 8 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 7,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7 mln -- BoxOffice team
$ 6,9 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 6,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 6,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 6,4 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 6,25 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2101 theaters, $ 2973 per theater)
$ 6 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 6 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
-----------------------------------------------
$ 5,22 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2101 theaters, $ 2485 per theater)
$ 5 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
2013 11 29 – Black Nativity, Frozen, Homefront
Catching Fire didn't actually catch. It grasped just $ 1100 per theater more than the first installment. Why? Advertising hype was on, but it failed to catch new fans. It was still a movie for teen girls (a battle royale element was underplayed to match PG-13 rating criteria), written better than the book but still not good in terms of overall writing -- as I read in a review on some movie website. Delivery Man went into theaters, it was all can be said about it.
This weekend we have three openings. They start on Wednesday, but all shots cover a typical weekend of Friday-Sunday.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
JESUS WAS BORN IN BETLEHEM, IN A MENGER, #OUTOFHOSPITALDELIVERY
This one, Black Nativity, is a PG musical movie, from Fox.
If you think there is nothing new in this world, you may be right. For a brief moment I thought I will be shooting in the dark for this movie, but last year we got Joyful Noise to refer to. It opened with $ 4104 per theater. It got the same religion, singing, and life-is-hard themes, with Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton as two leads.
Black Nativity surely puts bigger names and faces up front: Angela Bassett, Forest Whitaker, Jennifer Hudson.
But the story vehicle is less accessible. Joyful Noise was driven by a competition theme: there was a personal level of it (two friends-rivals for a leading chair of local choir), and a global level of it (choirs compete for the title of the best one). Women audience could relate to heroines. Black Nativity's story is centered on a teenage boy, on his struggle with life. I don't know how much interested in singing are today's male teenagers, but I know both PS4 and Xbox One have just entered shops. It is a killer competition.
So I lower my shot in comparison to Joyful Noise.
Shots (Friday-Sunday):
$ 13 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 11 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 10 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 10 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (just under $ 10M)
$ 9,1 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 6,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 5,28 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (1516 theaters, $ 3482 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 3,88 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (1516 theaters, $ 2559 per theater)
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't post a number for this one.
-----------------------------------------------
THE SNOWMAN WHO SNORTED TOO MUCH SNOW
This one, Frozen, is a PG adventure movie, from Walt Disney.
I saw the trailer a couple of times. I feel something is wrong, but I can't really put my finger on it.
On the plus side:
* no competition -- kids forgot Cloudy 2,
* season match -- this snow intensity is still ahead of us, but a lot of us wait eagerly for it, this movie is as close substitution as can be,
* Tangled lookalike -- if kids have any ounce of visual memory, they will links these two movies and drag their parents into theaters,
* Olaf, the overacting snowman -- he walks and speaks as if he snorted too much snow, these characters attract kids' attention (he also took center place on the poster).
On the minus side:
* opponent is not present -- the scary snow witch doesn't appear much in the trailer, it is rather a fight against nature (snow, blizzard, wolves) than her, which is a weak source of story tension,
* Prince Charming vs A Peasant with a Golden Heart -- it looks like a filler character than a serious rival to the heroine's heart
* she's no Merida -- her name isn't told in the trailer, so we have no reason to put up our liking for her, it is a bad sign for any hero.
All pluses look to me like market factors, all minuses look like movie factors. When comes to opening weekends, market factors are more important. When comes to next weekend's legs, or reviews, movie factors are more important.
Tangled opened with $ 13,535 per theater. Brave opened with $ 15,927 per theater. I think Frozen will open with something in the middle of these two numbers, closer to Tangled.
Shots (Friday-Sunday):
$ 66,71 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3742 theaters, $ 17,828 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 52,76 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3742 theaters, $ 14,100 per theater)
$ 50 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 47 mln -- Box Office team
$ 45,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 45 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 45 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 45 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 44,7 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 44,2 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 40 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 29,9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, didn't post a number for this one.
-----------------------------------------------
I SAW THIS 70 YEARS AGO, STARRING GARY COOPER
This one, Homefront, is an R action movie, from Open Road.
70 years ago westerns were the best movies possible. John Wayne, Gary Cooper, Henry Fonda: these names pulled people into theaters. Small and lawless western towns acted as witnessed to conflicts, ambitions, dreams, betrayals, rises and falls of the human nature.
In 2013 this chair is occupied by a genre of superhero movies. Iron Man, Superman, Thor, Wolverine, Professor Xavier, Magneto: they serve as poster boys for modern characterizations of human struggle in life. As older heroes possessed extraordinary skills in shooting, riding, lasso throwing, heroes of now use armors, hammers powered by a four-dimensioned source, and DNA mutations.
This parallel shows that in year 2013 there is no room for a typical drama movies without superhero elements. Openings of such movies as Promised Land, Broken City, Dead Man Down, Prisoners, Escape Plan, Runner, Runner, and my favorite flop of the year -- The Last Stand, didn't cross $ 10 mln. No one simply cared.
The same fate awaits for Homefront. It would be a great western: the hero stands against local big guys and burns down their cow branding counterfeit business. Now it is just a meh proposition, with too small value to offer.
Shots (Friday-Sunday):
$ 10 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 8,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 8 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 7,8 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,6 mln -- Box Office team
$ 6,97 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2570 theaters, $ 2712 per theater)
$ 6,51 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2570 theaters, $ 2531 per theater)
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't post a number for this one.
-----------------------------------------------
This weekend we have three openings. They start on Wednesday, but all shots cover a typical weekend of Friday-Sunday.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
JESUS WAS BORN IN BETLEHEM, IN A MENGER, #OUTOFHOSPITALDELIVERY
This one, Black Nativity, is a PG musical movie, from Fox.
If you think there is nothing new in this world, you may be right. For a brief moment I thought I will be shooting in the dark for this movie, but last year we got Joyful Noise to refer to. It opened with $ 4104 per theater. It got the same religion, singing, and life-is-hard themes, with Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton as two leads.
Black Nativity surely puts bigger names and faces up front: Angela Bassett, Forest Whitaker, Jennifer Hudson.
But the story vehicle is less accessible. Joyful Noise was driven by a competition theme: there was a personal level of it (two friends-rivals for a leading chair of local choir), and a global level of it (choirs compete for the title of the best one). Women audience could relate to heroines. Black Nativity's story is centered on a teenage boy, on his struggle with life. I don't know how much interested in singing are today's male teenagers, but I know both PS4 and Xbox One have just entered shops. It is a killer competition.
So I lower my shot in comparison to Joyful Noise.
Shots (Friday-Sunday):
$ 13 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 11 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 10 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 10 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (just under $ 10M)
$ 9,1 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 6,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 5,28 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (1516 theaters, $ 3482 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 3,88 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (1516 theaters, $ 2559 per theater)
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't post a number for this one.
-----------------------------------------------
THE SNOWMAN WHO SNORTED TOO MUCH SNOW
This one, Frozen, is a PG adventure movie, from Walt Disney.
I saw the trailer a couple of times. I feel something is wrong, but I can't really put my finger on it.
On the plus side:
* no competition -- kids forgot Cloudy 2,
* season match -- this snow intensity is still ahead of us, but a lot of us wait eagerly for it, this movie is as close substitution as can be,
* Tangled lookalike -- if kids have any ounce of visual memory, they will links these two movies and drag their parents into theaters,
* Olaf, the overacting snowman -- he walks and speaks as if he snorted too much snow, these characters attract kids' attention (he also took center place on the poster).
On the minus side:
* opponent is not present -- the scary snow witch doesn't appear much in the trailer, it is rather a fight against nature (snow, blizzard, wolves) than her, which is a weak source of story tension,
* Prince Charming vs A Peasant with a Golden Heart -- it looks like a filler character than a serious rival to the heroine's heart
* she's no Merida -- her name isn't told in the trailer, so we have no reason to put up our liking for her, it is a bad sign for any hero.
All pluses look to me like market factors, all minuses look like movie factors. When comes to opening weekends, market factors are more important. When comes to next weekend's legs, or reviews, movie factors are more important.
Tangled opened with $ 13,535 per theater. Brave opened with $ 15,927 per theater. I think Frozen will open with something in the middle of these two numbers, closer to Tangled.
Shots (Friday-Sunday):
$ 66,71 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3742 theaters, $ 17,828 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 52,76 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3742 theaters, $ 14,100 per theater)
$ 50 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 47 mln -- Box Office team
$ 45,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 45 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 45 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 45 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 44,7 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 44,2 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 40 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 29,9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, didn't post a number for this one.
-----------------------------------------------
I SAW THIS 70 YEARS AGO, STARRING GARY COOPER
This one, Homefront, is an R action movie, from Open Road.
70 years ago westerns were the best movies possible. John Wayne, Gary Cooper, Henry Fonda: these names pulled people into theaters. Small and lawless western towns acted as witnessed to conflicts, ambitions, dreams, betrayals, rises and falls of the human nature.
In 2013 this chair is occupied by a genre of superhero movies. Iron Man, Superman, Thor, Wolverine, Professor Xavier, Magneto: they serve as poster boys for modern characterizations of human struggle in life. As older heroes possessed extraordinary skills in shooting, riding, lasso throwing, heroes of now use armors, hammers powered by a four-dimensioned source, and DNA mutations.
This parallel shows that in year 2013 there is no room for a typical drama movies without superhero elements. Openings of such movies as Promised Land, Broken City, Dead Man Down, Prisoners, Escape Plan, Runner, Runner, and my favorite flop of the year -- The Last Stand, didn't cross $ 10 mln. No one simply cared.
The same fate awaits for Homefront. It would be a great western: the hero stands against local big guys and burns down their cow branding counterfeit business. Now it is just a meh proposition, with too small value to offer.
Shots (Friday-Sunday):
$ 10 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 8,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 8 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 7,8 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,6 mln -- Box Office team
$ 6,97 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2570 theaters, $ 2712 per theater)
$ 6,51 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2570 theaters, $ 2531 per theater)
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, Perri Nemiroff, Shockya, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't post a number for this one.
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
2013 11 22 – Delivery Man, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Counterprogramming and reduction of the number of theaters: these were two reasons last weekend's The Best Man Holiday went high. Higher than all predictions. It doesn't happen that frequent, usually counterprogramming stays on a paper. This time it went live. Good for people who watched it.
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
NEXT TIME BETTER SOCK IT, SON
This one, Delivery Man, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Walt Disney.
Bill Murray. Eddie Murphy. Jim Carrey. Those were names who could single handedly lead a comedy movie. To execute funny contrast they didn't need a sidekick.
Vince Vaughn is a seasoned comedy actor. But he didn't lead his past movies. He has always a bigger name beside. Owen Wilson played a dumber one in Starsky & Hutch, The Wedding Crashers, The Internship. In Four Christmases he shared screen time with Reese Witherspoon, and in The Break Up -- with Jennifer Aniston.
This time he takes all burdens on himself. And he succeeds. The comic premise is interesting (a guy finds out he has about 100 children and helps some of them in life), the character is likable (he positively answers to the story challenge).
Still, his name doesn't drive audience to theaters. On a comedy scale I feel this movie rests close to The Incredible Burt Wonderstone: good entertainment, but you need to be a genre fan.
Shots:
$ 14 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 13,9 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 13,7 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 13 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 12 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 12 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 11,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 11 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 10,57 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3036 theaters, $ 3480 per theater)
$ 10 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 9 mln -- Box Office team
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,95 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3036 theaters, $ 2617 per theater)
$ 7,5 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
A JOURNEY TO WOMANHOOD, OR THE RED RIDING HOOD OF 2000s
This one, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, is a thriller/suspense PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.
The only thing I need to decide is whether this movie will take the title of The Best Weekend Opening of the Year from hands of Tony Stark and co. Iron Man 3 went for $ 40,946 per theater. It pleased both girls (Robert Downey Jr.) and boys (Robert Downey Jr., various armors) audience. The Hunger Games leans more towards girls than boys (the battle royale element was underdeveloped). I watched the first part (on DVD), and I'm not going to watch the second.
Shots:
$ 195 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 180 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 180 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 177 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 176,3 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 170 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 168 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 168 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 167 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 167 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 166 mln -- Box Office team
$ 162,77 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (4163 theaters, $ 39,100 per theater)
$ 162,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 160 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 158,07 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (4163 theaters, $ 37,971 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
NEXT TIME BETTER SOCK IT, SON
This one, Delivery Man, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Walt Disney.
Bill Murray. Eddie Murphy. Jim Carrey. Those were names who could single handedly lead a comedy movie. To execute funny contrast they didn't need a sidekick.
Vince Vaughn is a seasoned comedy actor. But he didn't lead his past movies. He has always a bigger name beside. Owen Wilson played a dumber one in Starsky & Hutch, The Wedding Crashers, The Internship. In Four Christmases he shared screen time with Reese Witherspoon, and in The Break Up -- with Jennifer Aniston.
This time he takes all burdens on himself. And he succeeds. The comic premise is interesting (a guy finds out he has about 100 children and helps some of them in life), the character is likable (he positively answers to the story challenge).
Still, his name doesn't drive audience to theaters. On a comedy scale I feel this movie rests close to The Incredible Burt Wonderstone: good entertainment, but you need to be a genre fan.
Shots:
$ 14 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 13,9 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 13,7 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 13 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 12 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 12 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 11,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 11 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 10,57 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3036 theaters, $ 3480 per theater)
$ 10 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 9 mln -- Box Office team
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,95 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3036 theaters, $ 2617 per theater)
$ 7,5 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
A JOURNEY TO WOMANHOOD, OR THE RED RIDING HOOD OF 2000s
This one, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, is a thriller/suspense PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.
The only thing I need to decide is whether this movie will take the title of The Best Weekend Opening of the Year from hands of Tony Stark and co. Iron Man 3 went for $ 40,946 per theater. It pleased both girls (Robert Downey Jr.) and boys (Robert Downey Jr., various armors) audience. The Hunger Games leans more towards girls than boys (the battle royale element was underdeveloped). I watched the first part (on DVD), and I'm not going to watch the second.
Shots:
$ 195 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 180 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 180 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 177 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 176,3 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 170 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 168 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 168 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 167 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 167 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 166 mln -- Box Office team
$ 162,77 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (4163 theaters, $ 39,100 per theater)
$ 162,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 160 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 158,07 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (4163 theaters, $ 37,971 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
2013 11 15 – The Best Man Holiday
Thor: The Dark World didn't broke any records. It was a nice movie, funnier than it appeared in the trailer. That was the reason I missed the 10 per cent margin for it.
This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: The official number!
-----------------------------------------------
IS IT: (A) BEER, (B) BEER, BUDDIES, (C) BEER, BUDDIES, GAME?
This one, The Best Man Holiday, is a comedy R movie, from Universal.
It is also an overdelivered sequel to The Best Man, a comedy from 1999. The first installment made a total run about $ 30M. It is understandable we didn't get the sequel earlier.
We have three movies this year to model the opening for this one:
* The Big Wedding -- $ 2883 per theater, the ensemble comedy around the wedding,
* Baggage Claim -- $ 4455 pt., adventures of a woman looking for love,
* Grown Ups 2 -- $ 11,890 pt., a sequel about growing up and how relationships change with time.
We have two movies from 2011 and 2012 to model this one:
* New Year's Eve -- $ 3714 pt., the ensemble comedy around the event,
* Think Like a Man -- $ 16,694 pt., a comedy about four and a half couples.
I'm sure Think Like a Man's level is out of the question. That movie was centered around girls-versus-boys theme rather (thus reaching girls as audience, not couples), than it was a rom com or a comedy (as this one tries to be, judging from humor in the trailer).
I'm sure this one won't get Grown Ups 2's level. The sequel sentiment is 14 years old, this is just too much. It may even backfire. Any girl can convince her boyfriend to see one girlish movie, but watching two movies in one week time? Too much for an average guy.
I'm sure this one won't break Baggage Claim's level. Will it break New Year's Eve's level? The movie looks smaller in scope (big city vs. the mansion), so less action, more talking. I'm comfortable with $ 3000 per theater.
Shots:
$ 30,11 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2024 theaters, $ 14,875 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 24,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 24 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 22,3 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 22 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 22 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 21,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 20,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 19 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 17,9 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 15 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 14,5 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 6,07 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2024 theaters, $ 3000 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: The official number!
-----------------------------------------------
IS IT: (A) BEER, (B) BEER, BUDDIES, (C) BEER, BUDDIES, GAME?
This one, The Best Man Holiday, is a comedy R movie, from Universal.
It is also an overdelivered sequel to The Best Man, a comedy from 1999. The first installment made a total run about $ 30M. It is understandable we didn't get the sequel earlier.
We have three movies this year to model the opening for this one:
* The Big Wedding -- $ 2883 per theater, the ensemble comedy around the wedding,
* Baggage Claim -- $ 4455 pt., adventures of a woman looking for love,
* Grown Ups 2 -- $ 11,890 pt., a sequel about growing up and how relationships change with time.
We have two movies from 2011 and 2012 to model this one:
* New Year's Eve -- $ 3714 pt., the ensemble comedy around the event,
* Think Like a Man -- $ 16,694 pt., a comedy about four and a half couples.
I'm sure Think Like a Man's level is out of the question. That movie was centered around girls-versus-boys theme rather (thus reaching girls as audience, not couples), than it was a rom com or a comedy (as this one tries to be, judging from humor in the trailer).
I'm sure this one won't get Grown Ups 2's level. The sequel sentiment is 14 years old, this is just too much. It may even backfire. Any girl can convince her boyfriend to see one girlish movie, but watching two movies in one week time? Too much for an average guy.
I'm sure this one won't break Baggage Claim's level. Will it break New Year's Eve's level? The movie looks smaller in scope (big city vs. the mansion), so less action, more talking. I'm comfortable with $ 3000 per theater.
Shots:
$ 30,11 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2024 theaters, $ 14,875 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 24,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 24 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 22,3 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 22 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 22 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 21,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 20,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 19 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 17,9 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 15 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 14,5 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 6,07 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2024 theaters, $ 3000 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
2013 11 08 – Thor: The Dark World
Last weekend I learnt good ideas on a single family scale don't translate well into massive market, if not backed by marketing money or online buzz. Switching audiences from Free Birds to Ender's Game didn't happen, so both these shots of mine went wide. As usual, it was a good lesson.
This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official weekend numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
ADVENTURES OF A TANK WITH A SENSE OF HUMOR
This one, Thor: The Dark World, is an action PG-13 movie, from Paramount.
In role playing games' jargon, a tank is a character with high strength and endurance. His job is to keep opponents away from physically weaker members of a team: mages, archers, thieves, healers. In the movie team of Avengers there are two tanks: Hulk and Thor. Hulk is a classic one, while Thor can also be a distance player (thanks to his hammer and thunders).
I write about it, bacause it is relevant to box office numbers (and to future solo Hulk movies). Tanks are not the most interesting lead characters. They are not the brightest folks, so the story is usually light, with a lot of space for humor and unusual landscapes. The first Thor delivered it perfectly: three different settings (Frost Giants World, Asgard, Earth), tension created by Loki's machinations, humor served by Thor, its companions, and Agent Coulson.
This time, the place of Coulson went to Natalie Portman's Jane character, who is not funny. Frost Giants World was substituted by Dark Elves World, and it is lacking visual distinction, judging from the trailer. Instead of a town in desert, we got modern London. All three substitutions don't play well. If Loki was removed from the movie, it would totally fall apart in terms of audience engagement.
Thor: The Dark World will get a better box office than the first installment, but how better it's going to be? Here are some numbers:
* $ 16,618 per theater -- previous Thor's opening,
* $ 18,412 per theater -- World War Z's opening, as another action PG-13 movie this year,
* $ 25,211 per theater -- Skyfall's opening, that happened exactly on second weekend of November last year (an action PG-13 movie also).
Shots:
$ 104 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 100 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 97 mln -- Box Office team
$ 95,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 94,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
-----------------------------------------------
$ 90 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 89 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 86 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 85,74 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3841 theaters, $ 22,322 per theater)
$ 84 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 83,6 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 74,32 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3841 theaters, $ 19,348 per theater)
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
-----------------------------------------------
This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official weekend numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
ADVENTURES OF A TANK WITH A SENSE OF HUMOR
This one, Thor: The Dark World, is an action PG-13 movie, from Paramount.
In role playing games' jargon, a tank is a character with high strength and endurance. His job is to keep opponents away from physically weaker members of a team: mages, archers, thieves, healers. In the movie team of Avengers there are two tanks: Hulk and Thor. Hulk is a classic one, while Thor can also be a distance player (thanks to his hammer and thunders).
I write about it, bacause it is relevant to box office numbers (and to future solo Hulk movies). Tanks are not the most interesting lead characters. They are not the brightest folks, so the story is usually light, with a lot of space for humor and unusual landscapes. The first Thor delivered it perfectly: three different settings (Frost Giants World, Asgard, Earth), tension created by Loki's machinations, humor served by Thor, its companions, and Agent Coulson.
This time, the place of Coulson went to Natalie Portman's Jane character, who is not funny. Frost Giants World was substituted by Dark Elves World, and it is lacking visual distinction, judging from the trailer. Instead of a town in desert, we got modern London. All three substitutions don't play well. If Loki was removed from the movie, it would totally fall apart in terms of audience engagement.
Thor: The Dark World will get a better box office than the first installment, but how better it's going to be? Here are some numbers:
* $ 16,618 per theater -- previous Thor's opening,
* $ 18,412 per theater -- World War Z's opening, as another action PG-13 movie this year,
* $ 25,211 per theater -- Skyfall's opening, that happened exactly on second weekend of November last year (an action PG-13 movie also).
The first and the third number are out of reach. I think this movie will top $ 18,000 per theater, but won't cross $ 20,000 per theater. If three substitutions I mentioned earlier were executed better, I'd add $ 2000-3000 per theater.
Shots:
$ 104 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 100 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 97 mln -- Box Office team
$ 95,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 94,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
-----------------------------------------------
$ 90 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 89 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 86 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 85,74 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3841 theaters, $ 22,322 per theater)
$ 84 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 83,6 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 74,32 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3841 theaters, $ 19,348 per theater)
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
2013 11 01 – Ender's Game, Free Birds, Last Vegas
But there comes a trap, when two following installments of a movie franchise differ in 3D area. I fell into it last weekend with Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa. I modeled its opening after 3D-only the franchise's installment. I should go after Jackass 2, raise it up a bit according to its comical value and franchise recognition (the same situation happens in Fast & Furious franchise), as did most my fellow predicters.
It is also interesting to see that actors and actresses don't cross genres as easy as they used to. Michael Fassbender, a stellar drama actor (his role in X-Men: First Class also included a drama element), didn't lead a thriller (The Counselor) into high opening. Will Tom Hanks', or Denzel Washington's, or Brad Pitt's crossings from comedies to dramas or from dramas to actions not happen in next years? We'll see.
This weekend we have three openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official weekend numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
THE NEVERENDING STORY OF YEAR 2013
This one, Ender's Game, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.
Cowboys and Aliens. Prince of Persia. John Carter. Clash/Wrath of the Titans. Elysium. Oblivion. After Earth. World War Z with Brad Pitt on a bench. This is the lode of movies Ender's Game is trying to tap into. With it comes the most likely number per theater: something around $ 8000-9000.
Producers aimed did to reduce the Orson Scott Card book's political layer. Judging by the trailer, they succeeded. Is it a good thing? I think so. We live in a world where various groups train their kids in killing opponents. In the book we are explained why children are being used as a weapon in war. We get all the information, because we don't need to finish it in 114 minutes. Movies have their time limits -- 114 minutes in this case -- so there is not enough time to do it properly.
The outcome is the movie based on motives from the book, rather than based on the book itself. SF purists will cry in comments sections all over the internet. But the audience, children 6 to 10 (boys and girls, as well), will have great fun, will get great memories, and maybe will get to like SF as a genre. Just as I had, back in 1984, thanks to The Neverending Story.
As I explained in the Free Birds's paragraphs, I raise my shot for Ender's Game by $ 1700 per theater.
Shots:
$ 37,82 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3407 theaters, $ 11,100 per theater)
$ 30,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 30,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 30 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------$ 28,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 28,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 28 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 27,02 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3407 theaters, $ 7930 per theater)
$ 27 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 27 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 26,2 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
-----------------------------------------------
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
-----------------------------------------------
I WON'T DO CHEAP PUNS, BECAUSE I RESPECT KEBAP SHOP OWNERS
This one, Free Birds, is an animated comedy PG movie, from Relativity.
Pairing this movie's theme and an american calendar holiday might seem a good marketing idea. But on this day how many parents will go to theaters with their kids? There will be family gatherings, generations unite at dinner tables. If younger kids excuse themselves from adults, they will be still playing inside. Even if they persuade an older sister or brother to take them out, chances are they will end up on an Ender's Game screening instead. More thrills, more fun going to an 'adult' movie.
With shooting, at first I went for $ 4950 per theater, similar to Escape from Planet Earth's number. Then I wrote the above paragraph, and I really like its way of thinking. So I lower my shot to $ 3250. The difference will be transferred to the Ender's Game prediction.
Shots:
$ 22 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 20 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 18,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 27 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 17,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 17,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 17,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17,5 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily-----------------------------------------------
$ 15,81 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3736 theaters, $ 4231 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 14 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,14 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3736 theaters, $ 3250 per theater)
$ 11 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
-----------------------------------------------
A BRILLIANT SATIRE ON TODAY'S PARTY GENERATION
This one, Last Vegas, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from CBS Films.
A lot of people will dismiss this movie as a bad ripoff of The Hangover franchise. They will criticise actors, plot, forced laughs, level 5 of 10 attractive women in pool and party scenes. They will miss the point.
It is a brilliant satire on today's party generation. If you behave the way depicted in the movie, if you lie to family members, if sneak out of a house in a pathetic way, if your only dream is to get drunk, sleep curled at friend's side, wake up at a stranger's place, it is a sign you have not much life left.
The opening number of this movie will bring another level of satire: no one cares about these people.
Shots:
$ 18,3 mln -- Box Office team
$ 18,3 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 16,33 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3065 theaters, $ 5329 per theater)
$ 16,2 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 15 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 15 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 15 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
$ 14,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 14,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 14 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 14 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline$ 14 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 3,52 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3065 theaters, $ 1150 per theater)
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
-----------------------------------------------
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
2013 10 25 – Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Counselor
This year's horrors provide two valuable lessons for everyone involved in remakes, reboots, sequels, and continuations.
Lesson one: nostalgia is a one restive horse. You play too little, no one cares about a remake. You play too much, people cling to an old version like it would be send into eternity of oblivion by a new movie.
Lesson two: studios do misread reasons that persuaded audience to see an old version (or the first installment). Carrie was playing at psychological thriller's side of the genre fence rather, than at visual horror's side. Modern gadgets and clothes didn't make it more creepy, thus the remake missed its point. It worked like a champ for Evil Dead, for example. Escape Plan as a star vehicle of Stallone and Schwarzenegger also didn't worked, because an audience wanted to see an all out war between Rambo and Commando -- not two old men trying to catch their breath after a short run. I'm pretty sure that a movie like this, even without both brand actors, would make some good money.
That's a wrap for last weekend.
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
TWO AND A HALF MEN ON STEROIDS: MORE JAKE, MORE OFFENSIVE SETUPS, NO ALAN
This one, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, is a comedy R movie, from Paramount.
I like watching first two or three seasons of Two and a Half Men. Jake was a small kid then, his naive reactions to glimpses of Charlie's life (booze, boobs, poking Alan) made this show working. In one of episodes, Jake was complaining that girls got mean when they grew breasts. He then started to act like a girl: he talked about a sports bra, and Alan not elbowing him in the boob.
In Bad Grandpa we have the same comical theme pushed further -- the 'Jake' disguised as a girl (the pink dress rocks!) went to a girl beauty pageant. But there was more, we got a topper: a stripper routine!
Yes, I laughed during the trailer. The funeral stunt, the Cinnamon scene, the beauty pageant stunt were great fun. Offensive to some people, yes! But funny in a good, comic-technical way! The Grandpa persona is much stronger than Johnny Knoxville himself. The contrast to a stereotype of grandpa (associated with wisdom, politeness, restraint behavior) is hilarious in itself, pairing him with a 'Jake' kid adds another layer to comic potential. I hope the rest of the movie is packed with more comical gems like scenes featured in the trailer.
Now, here comes the hard part: shooting.
In 2010, the last installment of Jackass franchise got $ 16,343 per theater and $ 50,35M total on its opening weekend, spurring a lot of America-went-down-the-toilet rants. Tyler Perry's Madea franchise went for $ 10,000 per theater level in couple of last incarnations, I take it as a base level for Bad Grandpa's number.
There are two questions is this: will audience of Jackass guys go for a solo movie? In a similar way, I could ask: will a single guy from One Direction sell out a concert? Will a single member of Take That make a successful career? (We know Robbie Williams did.)
The second question is this: will this comedy premise reach a lot of people previously not interested in crazy physical stunts?
The english male magazine Nuts in its latest issue run a two-page centerfold with a subtitle like this: 'Ten reasons why you need to see 2013's funniest film!'. I agree with that statement and I keep my fingers crossed. I appreciate good jokes.
Shots:
$ 60,05 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3336 theaters, $ 18,000 per theater)
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 32,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32,06 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3336 theaters, $ 9609 per theater)
$ 31,3 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 31 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 30,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 30 mln -- Box Office team
-----------------------------------------------
$ 28,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 28 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 26 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
-----------------------------------------------
HOW A CHEMICAL SUBSTANCE TRIGGERS CONTRAST BEHAVIOR IN VARIOUS PEOPLE
This one, The Counselor, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Fox.
This movie is clearly as forgettable as Runner Runner from three weeks past. A master assassin gets played by some crook and it dangers his personal life he kept apart all those years -- not much interesting, right?
What is interesting is what kind of stuff got in blood streams of Bardem and Pitt. In the trailer -- and on the poster, too -- they look waaay out of the norm. Bardem looks agitated, always smiling, his hair all standing up. Pitt looks scared, as if he saw a shadow of a giant snail coming towards him from behind horizon. It could be a nice comedy, if the movie didn't take itself seriously. Sadly, it does take.
Two good things: Cameron Diaz looks really great, and I get a chance to tell Mr. Fassbender to call Whitney Cummings. She will explain all details.
As for shooting, I get mixed signals. On one hand, this year's Side Effects, similar ensemble R thriller got $ 3845 per theater opening. Last year's Savages, also ensemble R thriller got $ 6095 per theater opening. I'm leaning towards Savages' number, but I'm not sure of star power of Brad Pitt in R movies. He usually played in PG-13 movies, there he drove great results. But he definitely is not James Franco, and the trailer talks less action than Savages. I'm closing on a lower end.
Shots:
$ 16 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 14,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 14 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 13,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12 mln -- Box Office team
$ 11,72 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3044 theaters, $ 3850 per theater)
$ 10,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (just under 11)
$ 10 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 7,84 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3044 theaters, $ 2577 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Lesson one: nostalgia is a one restive horse. You play too little, no one cares about a remake. You play too much, people cling to an old version like it would be send into eternity of oblivion by a new movie.
Lesson two: studios do misread reasons that persuaded audience to see an old version (or the first installment). Carrie was playing at psychological thriller's side of the genre fence rather, than at visual horror's side. Modern gadgets and clothes didn't make it more creepy, thus the remake missed its point. It worked like a champ for Evil Dead, for example. Escape Plan as a star vehicle of Stallone and Schwarzenegger also didn't worked, because an audience wanted to see an all out war between Rambo and Commando -- not two old men trying to catch their breath after a short run. I'm pretty sure that a movie like this, even without both brand actors, would make some good money.
That's a wrap for last weekend.
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
This one, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, is a comedy R movie, from Paramount.
I like watching first two or three seasons of Two and a Half Men. Jake was a small kid then, his naive reactions to glimpses of Charlie's life (booze, boobs, poking Alan) made this show working. In one of episodes, Jake was complaining that girls got mean when they grew breasts. He then started to act like a girl: he talked about a sports bra, and Alan not elbowing him in the boob.
In Bad Grandpa we have the same comical theme pushed further -- the 'Jake' disguised as a girl (the pink dress rocks!) went to a girl beauty pageant. But there was more, we got a topper: a stripper routine!
Yes, I laughed during the trailer. The funeral stunt, the Cinnamon scene, the beauty pageant stunt were great fun. Offensive to some people, yes! But funny in a good, comic-technical way! The Grandpa persona is much stronger than Johnny Knoxville himself. The contrast to a stereotype of grandpa (associated with wisdom, politeness, restraint behavior) is hilarious in itself, pairing him with a 'Jake' kid adds another layer to comic potential. I hope the rest of the movie is packed with more comical gems like scenes featured in the trailer.
Now, here comes the hard part: shooting.
In 2010, the last installment of Jackass franchise got $ 16,343 per theater and $ 50,35M total on its opening weekend, spurring a lot of America-went-down-the-toilet rants. Tyler Perry's Madea franchise went for $ 10,000 per theater level in couple of last incarnations, I take it as a base level for Bad Grandpa's number.
There are two questions is this: will audience of Jackass guys go for a solo movie? In a similar way, I could ask: will a single guy from One Direction sell out a concert? Will a single member of Take That make a successful career? (We know Robbie Williams did.)
The second question is this: will this comedy premise reach a lot of people previously not interested in crazy physical stunts?
The english male magazine Nuts in its latest issue run a two-page centerfold with a subtitle like this: 'Ten reasons why you need to see 2013's funniest film!'. I agree with that statement and I keep my fingers crossed. I appreciate good jokes.
Shots:
$ 60,05 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3336 theaters, $ 18,000 per theater)
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 32,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32,06 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3336 theaters, $ 9609 per theater)
$ 31,3 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 31 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 30,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 30 mln -- Box Office team
-----------------------------------------------
$ 28,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 28 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 26 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
-----------------------------------------------
HOW A CHEMICAL SUBSTANCE TRIGGERS CONTRAST BEHAVIOR IN VARIOUS PEOPLE
This one, The Counselor, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Fox.
This movie is clearly as forgettable as Runner Runner from three weeks past. A master assassin gets played by some crook and it dangers his personal life he kept apart all those years -- not much interesting, right?
What is interesting is what kind of stuff got in blood streams of Bardem and Pitt. In the trailer -- and on the poster, too -- they look waaay out of the norm. Bardem looks agitated, always smiling, his hair all standing up. Pitt looks scared, as if he saw a shadow of a giant snail coming towards him from behind horizon. It could be a nice comedy, if the movie didn't take itself seriously. Sadly, it does take.
Two good things: Cameron Diaz looks really great, and I get a chance to tell Mr. Fassbender to call Whitney Cummings. She will explain all details.
As for shooting, I get mixed signals. On one hand, this year's Side Effects, similar ensemble R thriller got $ 3845 per theater opening. Last year's Savages, also ensemble R thriller got $ 6095 per theater opening. I'm leaning towards Savages' number, but I'm not sure of star power of Brad Pitt in R movies. He usually played in PG-13 movies, there he drove great results. But he definitely is not James Franco, and the trailer talks less action than Savages. I'm closing on a lower end.
Shots:
$ 16 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 14,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 14 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 13,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12 mln -- Box Office team
$ 11,72 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3044 theaters, $ 3850 per theater)
$ 10,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (just under 11)
$ 10 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 7,84 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3044 theaters, $ 2577 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
2013 10 18 – Carrie, Escape Plan, The Fifth Estate
Last week I used my card 'Not Being Mainstream' (+ 20 per cent to initial shot) and I ended up 26 per cent off the official number of Captain Phillips. But Gravity is still doing great job at box office, it's practically this year's Avatar.
Machete Kills bombed hard. I fast-forwarded the first installment, and it was clear what was the reason: not enough fun. I guess we still wait for Sin City 2.
This weekend we have three openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
A HIGH SCHOOL REVENGE HANDBOOK
This one, Carrie, is a horror R movie, from Sony.
This weekend the cume box office of new movies could go either into a $ 65-70M, or a $ 30-35M territory. Carrie is the only movie capable of switching these routes. Will it punch through $ 35M ceiling?
Or, rephrasing this question: will Chloë Grace Moretz lead it to be the best opening of Stephen King's movie ever? Like totally best one?
Chloë Grace Moretz follows in footsteps of Natalie Portman: starting her career early, being both fans' and critics' favorite, taking on many challenging and exciting roles. What Miss Moretz lacks, is a powerful leading role. We all remember Portman's character in Leon the Professional. Will we remember Moretz's character of Carrie? I don't think so. The lead actor/actress strength comes from a conflict with the second character (opponent or sidekick). Jean Reno as the killer is far more significant and conflict-rising than Julianne Moore as the mother: he is the central person on Leon's posters, she doesn't appear on any of movie posters.
I think it will be the best King's movie opening, but won't be enough to get whole weekend into $ 60M level.
Shots:
$ 28 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 28 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya (thank you, Perri, for clarification)
$ 27,23 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3157 theaters, $ 8624 per theater)
$ 25 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 24,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24 mln -- Box Office team
$ 24 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 22,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 22,4 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 21 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,10 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3157 theaters, $ 5100 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
I HAD AN ESCAPE PLAN, BUT MY DOG ATE IT THIS MORNING
This one, Escape Plan, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Lionsgate.
For prison break movies to be fun to watch, two conditions must be met: the unjustice that ended with imprisonment of the lead hero must be personal and known from the start (audience have to cheer on breaking free attempts), and the prison (or more precisely, traps/obstacles) must be really challenging, both mentally and physically. This is why some of Saw's traps or The Final Destination's killings were brilliant.
Unfortunately for Escape Plan, the trailer lacks both of conditions. The Stallone's lead hero doesn't know why he is in prison. The prison itself looks futuristic, but in the end all they need is muscle and/or rifle. That means there is no dramatic conflict that could grab and hold viewers' attention. It's a pity, because this is the second movie of Schwarzenegger this year that could be great, but turned out mediocre (still can't believe The Last Stand turned that bad).
Shots:
$ 13 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 12,3 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 11,82 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2883 theaters, $ 4100 per theater)
$ 11 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 11 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10,2 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 10 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 9,89 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2883 theaters, $ 3429 per theater)
$ 9,6 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln -- Box Office team
$ 8,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers just under $ 9 mln
-----------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
IS IT A MOVIE ABOUT PHILOSOPHICAL ROOFTOP CONVERSATIONS, WITH CITY LIGHTS IN BACKGROUND? IN PART, YES
This one, The Fifth Estate, is a drama R movie, from Walt Disney.
I have no big expectations for this movie. I see the value that someone told the story of WikiLeaks from the perspective of society and its right to know machinations of politicians. But I don't see much people want to see it in theaters. Even to see Benedict Cumberbatch who is an easy bet to get an Oscar nomination. Not when they can still see two powerful dramas (Gravity, Captain Phillips).
Shots:
$ 8,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 7,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 6 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 6 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 5,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 5,1 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 5 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 4,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 4 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 3,89 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (1769 theaters, $ 2200 per theater)
$ 3,8 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 1,67 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (1769 theaters, $ 946 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't post this movie.
-----------------------------------------------
Machete Kills bombed hard. I fast-forwarded the first installment, and it was clear what was the reason: not enough fun. I guess we still wait for Sin City 2.
This weekend we have three openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
A HIGH SCHOOL REVENGE HANDBOOK
This one, Carrie, is a horror R movie, from Sony.
This weekend the cume box office of new movies could go either into a $ 65-70M, or a $ 30-35M territory. Carrie is the only movie capable of switching these routes. Will it punch through $ 35M ceiling?
Or, rephrasing this question: will Chloë Grace Moretz lead it to be the best opening of Stephen King's movie ever? Like totally best one?
Chloë Grace Moretz follows in footsteps of Natalie Portman: starting her career early, being both fans' and critics' favorite, taking on many challenging and exciting roles. What Miss Moretz lacks, is a powerful leading role. We all remember Portman's character in Leon the Professional. Will we remember Moretz's character of Carrie? I don't think so. The lead actor/actress strength comes from a conflict with the second character (opponent or sidekick). Jean Reno as the killer is far more significant and conflict-rising than Julianne Moore as the mother: he is the central person on Leon's posters, she doesn't appear on any of movie posters.
I think it will be the best King's movie opening, but won't be enough to get whole weekend into $ 60M level.
Shots:
$ 28 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 28 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya (thank you, Perri, for clarification)
$ 27,23 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3157 theaters, $ 8624 per theater)
$ 25 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 24,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24 mln -- Box Office team
$ 24 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 22,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 22,4 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 21 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,10 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3157 theaters, $ 5100 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
I HAD AN ESCAPE PLAN, BUT MY DOG ATE IT THIS MORNING
This one, Escape Plan, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Lionsgate.
For prison break movies to be fun to watch, two conditions must be met: the unjustice that ended with imprisonment of the lead hero must be personal and known from the start (audience have to cheer on breaking free attempts), and the prison (or more precisely, traps/obstacles) must be really challenging, both mentally and physically. This is why some of Saw's traps or The Final Destination's killings were brilliant.
Unfortunately for Escape Plan, the trailer lacks both of conditions. The Stallone's lead hero doesn't know why he is in prison. The prison itself looks futuristic, but in the end all they need is muscle and/or rifle. That means there is no dramatic conflict that could grab and hold viewers' attention. It's a pity, because this is the second movie of Schwarzenegger this year that could be great, but turned out mediocre (still can't believe The Last Stand turned that bad).
Shots:
$ 13 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 12,3 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 11,82 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2883 theaters, $ 4100 per theater)
$ 11 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 11 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10,2 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 10 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 9,89 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2883 theaters, $ 3429 per theater)
$ 9,6 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln -- Box Office team
$ 8,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers just under $ 9 mln
-----------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
IS IT A MOVIE ABOUT PHILOSOPHICAL ROOFTOP CONVERSATIONS, WITH CITY LIGHTS IN BACKGROUND? IN PART, YES
This one, The Fifth Estate, is a drama R movie, from Walt Disney.
I have no big expectations for this movie. I see the value that someone told the story of WikiLeaks from the perspective of society and its right to know machinations of politicians. But I don't see much people want to see it in theaters. Even to see Benedict Cumberbatch who is an easy bet to get an Oscar nomination. Not when they can still see two powerful dramas (Gravity, Captain Phillips).
Shots:
$ 8,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 7,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 6 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 6 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 5,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 5,1 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 5 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 4,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 4 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 3,89 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (1769 theaters, $ 2200 per theater)
$ 3,8 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 1,67 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (1769 theaters, $ 946 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't post this movie.
-----------------------------------------------
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