Last week my computer caught on fire and my wife's important project was completely lost. We had to start it again, from scratch. We were doing it in rounds: she sat in front of second computer for 10 hours, then I sat for 10 hours, we slept in between. But deadline of this project is the nearest Tuesday, so next Wednesday everything will return to normal state of affairs.
Today we have three openings.
This one, G.I.Joe: Retaliation, is an action movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
It's the first movie in this genre in this year. Looking at theaters' lineup, it's also the only movie for target audience. So I started with theaters at 3700-3800 height.
But after watching the trailer, I've felt this movie a level too small in vision (I mean -- as feeling of vastness of a world presented in movie). It's definitely not Transformers, but it can neither be Green Lantern. So I stopped at 3600 theaters.
As for $ number per theater, everything lies in hands of managers of G.I.Joe brand line. Rise of the Cobra opened four years ago. That audience is now four years older, they may move to other life interests (girls and SM, probably -- SM meaning social media). I don't know what young generation thinks about G.I. Joe now. If marketing is strong still, opening number per theater can be just a little lower than the previous one. $12500 looks good enough to me.
Shots:
45 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3600 theaters, $12500 per theater)
44,6 mln -- HSX.
-----------------------------------------------
44 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo.
44 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave.
42 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (3719 theaters, $11293 per theater)
41 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.
40,5 mln -- the final weekend number of the movie (3719 theaters, $10891 per theater)
40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya.
37,5 mln -- BoxOffice staff.
37,3 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo.
37 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers.
-----------------------------------------------
35 mln -- Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart.
UPDATE: Turned out Perri did make predictions' post. I just didn't find it in time. Sorry, Perri :-)
This one, The Host, is a thriller/suspense movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
With movies for maturing girls two things are crucial. The first one is wide scope of visibility in girls' media. I read about actions taken for The Hunger Games -- it was a good move. On the other hand, we saw a movie with no apparent media exposure -- Beautiful Creatures that bombed.
The second thing is overall hotness factor of boy and love story. The boy must be handsome and his character has to stir a love conflict. In Twilight, the boy is a vampire. almost a hundred years old. Love conflict is found on an age gap.
In Beautiful Creatures love conflict was... She was a human with witch abilities, he was human. No obvious love conflict, except typical parenting rant "He is not for you".
In The Host love conflict looks like this: she is possessed by an alien, he is human. It sounds a bit like family feud love conflict, branded in popular culture by Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet. It is definitely not that strong as one in Twilight, but it is quite compelling. IF movie marketing was talking about this, the opening would be surprisingly high.
But I look at the poster and I see the main conflict human vs alien, happening in mind of female lead character. No love conflict on poster. It could wreck opening number and I am leaning towards this kind of effect.
A word on using reviews for this kind of movies: the choice is made not in mind, but in heart.
Shots:
19 mln -- Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart.
16,8 mln -- HSX.
15,6 mln -- BoxOffice staff.
15 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.
15 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers.
14,5 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo.
14,4 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo.
14 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave.
12 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (3202 theaters, $3748 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
10,6 mln -- the final weekend number of the movie (3202 theaters, $3310 per theater)
10 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya.
-----------------------------------------------
7,64 -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2700 theatres, $2830 per theater)
This one, Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor, is a drama movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
Tyler Perry is a surefire hit, when it comes to theaters' number: 2200, period.
A number per theater is less logical. The Madea movies open higher, above $10K, movies with other characters open under $10k.
But how ready is audience to see a story about married woman having an affair? Do they want her to be happy in this additional relationship, or are they embarassed by such explicable statement of gender roles modern days? If yes, I would expect a higher opening, but sharper fall in next weekends.
I just realised that this movie's audience are small groups of women friends. Not a typical chick flick, but it serves the same need. So in my shot I go for an almost-Madea's level of interest -- $9730 per theater.
Shots:
-----------------------------------------------
22 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (2047 theaters, $10747 per theater)
21,64 mln -- the final weekend number of the movie (2047 theaters, $10572 per theater)
20,43 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2100 theatres, $9730 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
18,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo.
18 mln -- BoxOffice staff go for 18 mln.
18 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers.
17,3 mln -- HSX.
16 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.
15,5 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo.
15,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave.
15 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya.
13 mln -- Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart.














