This one, 21 and Over, is a comedy movie. MPAA rating is R.
Predicting for this movie should be a no-brainer. Last year we had American Reunion and Project X, targeting the same demographic. 13 years ago we had Dude, Where's My car?, which also gathered about $6,8M per cinema.
There is only one question. How does smaller scope of a story affect cinemas' managers decosion of getting this movie? Project X had early screenings, TV host Jimmy Kimmel cameo, and $26M in marketing budget. This distributor, Relativity, usually puts less money in marketing, about half of that number.
I'm also thinking that both CGI monsters, this week's Jack the Giant Slayer and next week's Oz the Great and Powerful will steal some cinemas' rooms. My original shot was 3055 cinemas, now I'm comfortable with 2270 cinemas only.
Shots:
Laremy Legel from RopeOfSilicon goes for 18 mln.
HSX go for 15,8 mln.
Damon Houx from ScreenCrave goes for 15,5 mln.
BoxOffice staff go for 15 mln.
FilmGo goes for 15 mln. (via HSX)
Ray Subers from BoxOfficeMojo goes for 14,7 mln.
Gitesh Pandya from BoxOfficeGuru goes for 14 mln.
C.S. Strowbridge from The Numbers goes for 13 mln.
Movie Critic Assasins from BreitBart go for 13 mln.
I go for 12,49 mln (2270 cinemas, $5500 per cinema)
Perri Nemiroff from Shockya goes for 10 mln.
The movie went for 8,75 mln. (2771 cinemas, $3159 per cinema)
I don't have shots from Examiner.
This one, Jack the Giant Slayer, is an adventure movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
I think this will be a better giant/troll movie than The Hobbit was.
I think Nicholas Hoult has a pretty good chance to dethrone Robert Pattison as the hottest potato in town (Warm Bodies has started this).
I think cinemas' managers will dig this movie despite next week's opening of Oz the Great and Powerful. Sure, it is direct competition but it still can be $8k+ per weekend income. I would not throw this kind of money away, even for one week. Better than keeping A Good Day to Die Hard.
Shots:
I go for 39,43 mln (3755 cinemas, $10500 per cinema)
Laremy Legel from RopeOfSilicon goes for 35,3 mln.
Perri Nemiroff from Shockya goes for 30 mln.
The movie went for 27,20 mln. (3525 cinemas, $7717 per cinema)
HSX go for 28 mln.
C.S. Strowbridge from The Numbers goes for 28 mln.
Gitesh Pandya from BoxOfficeGuru goes for 28 mln.
Ray Subers from BoxOfficeMojo goes for 26,1 mln.
Damon Houx from ScreenCrave goes for 25 mln.
Movie Critic Assasins from BreitBart go for 25 mln.
FilmGo goes for 22 mln. (via HSX)
BoxOffice staff go for 21 mln.
I don't have shots from The-Numbers and Examiner.
This one, Phantom, is a thriller/suspense movie. MPAA rating is R.
As I wrote last week for Dark Skies – bestselling book material, mediocre movie if not tied to a great actor. But Ed Harris is not Sean Connery of The Hunt for the Red October.
Also, I watched the trailer and didn't get at all that all characters are Russian. Really bad move.
Second also, at the latest autumn a TV series about submarine-captain-went-rogue premiered. It was cancelled after couple of episodes.
All this things considered, I think this movie will as popular as Bullet to the Head.
Shots:
I go for 3,74 mln (2200 cinemas, $1700 per cinema)
BoxOffice staff go for 3 mln.
Gitesh Pandya from BoxOfficeGuru goes for 3 mln.
Laremy Legel from RopeOfSilicon goes for 2 mln.
Perri Nemiroff from Shockya goes for 2 mln.
C.S. Strowbridge from The Numbers goes for below 2 mln.
Movie Critic Assasins from BreitBart go for 1,8 mln.
The movie went for 0,51 mln. (1118 cinemas, $454 per cinema)
I don't have shots from The-Numbers and Examiner.
Didn't cover this movie or didn't get precise number: BoxOfficeMojo, FilmGo, ScreenCrave, HSX.
This one, The Last Exorcism part II, is a horror movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
So far this year, horrors and supernatural thrillers had great run. Texas Chainsaw 3D, A Haunted House, Mama, Warm Bodies, Dark Skies (sort of) – that's a great list for genre fans.
But have we needed this sequel? Has it brought anything new to the horror table? Cracking bones were amazing three years ago. Then, they were spoofed.
My initial number per cinema was $5000. Then I watched the first movie and significantly lowered the number.
Shots:
Perri Nemiroff from Shockya goes for 15 mln.
Laremy Legel from RopeOfSilicon goes for 14,3 mln.
Ray Subers from BoxOfficeMojo goes for 12,5 mln.
C.S. Strowbridge from The Numbers goes for 12 mln.
BoxOffice staff go for 12 mln.
Gitesh Pandya from BoxOfficeGuru goes for 12 mln.
Damon Houx from ScreenCrave goes for 11 mln.
HSX go for 11 mln.
FilmGo goes for 8,5 mln. (via HSX)
Movie Critic Assasins from BreitBart go for 8,4 mln.
I go for 8,36 mln. (2200 cinemas, $3800 per cinema)
The movie went for 7,73 mln. (2700 cinemas, $2862 per cinema)
I don't have shots from The-Numbers and Examiner.
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