This one, Dead Man Down, is a thriller/suspense movie. MPAA rating is R.
Last week I have compiled data of movie openings from years 2010-2012. All the movies that went wide, no less than 800 cinemas, got their numbers listed and sorted in various ways.
I thought it would help in making predictions.
And this weekend, the very first weekend, I turns out it doesn't.
Looking with completely sore eye, Dead Man Down, is really not attractive. A tale of revenge, with the lead (Farrell) that at first seems intriguing (kills a man without too much thought), but turns out typical (he gun-shoots, car-drives, talks yawn-inducing threats). The only interesting thing in the trailer of this movie is a soundtrack, consisting of Pink Floyd's great track, Shine On You, Crazy Diamond.
The poster, as you can see above, is also typical. One can totally glaze over it, hanging on a multiplex's wall, somewhere between muscular The Rock (of Snitch) and scarred Bruce Willis (of A Good Day to Die Hard).
On the other hand, Colin Farrell could still has some star power left. So, I'm quite fixed with a number of cinemas (2600) for opening weekend – Dead Man Down should simply come in a place left by Snitch. I'm a little dancing around a dollar number per cinema. Farrell is simply not as hot as The Rock, so Snitch's number of $5177 per cinema is out of question. I'm going to compare it to 2012's Haywire, and set a bar at high $3000 per cinema.
Shots:
HSX go for 9,6 mln.
I go for 9,49 mln. (2600 cinemas, $3650 per cinema)
Perri Nemiroff from Shockya goes for 7 mln.
Laremy Legel from RopeOfSilicon goes for 6,5 mln.
Damon Houx from ScreenCrave goes for 6,5 mln.
Gitesh Pandya from BoxOfficeGuru goes for 6 mln.
C.S. Strowbridge from The-Numbers goes for 5,5 mln.
Ray Subers from BoxOfficeMojo goes for 5,5 mln.
The movie went for 5,35 mln. (2188 cinemas, $2445 per cinema)
BoxOffice staff go for 5 mln.
Bill Bonfanti from FilmGo goes for 4,5 mln.
Movie Critic Assasins from BreitBart go for 4,5 mln.
I have no numbers from Examiner.
This one, Oz the Great and Powerful, is an adventure movie. MPAA rating is PG.
The only sure thing about this movie is that its opening will be higher than last weekend's Jack the Giant Slayer. It will get in more theaters and it will earn more per cinema. But how many thousands more?
Adventure PGs are usually animations, clearly targeting children's audience. This has human actors, so it is similar to titles such as The Chronicles of Narnia, Percy Jackson's movies, The Last Airbender, Tron: Legacy even. All these movies were solid about $10k hits (the last installment of Narnia was lower, $6752 per cinema only).
But in 2010 we had Alice in Wonderland, tremendous hit in box office that raked $31143 on first weekend. It was higher even than that year's installment of Harry Potter (Deathly Hallows part I). The feeling of Oz is quite similar: trailer looks very colorful, characters are nice and easy to comprehend (hint: girls' clothes tell everything). But the poster doesn't contain the face of Johnny Depp. James Franco is cute with his 'stache, but it is not that level of interest pulling. Maybe marketing dollars will pump that up: today I saw Oz the Great and Powerful as a second cover of free daily newspaper in my city.
A pendulum swings back and forth, so does my shot at Oz the Great and Powerful. But in the end I go with the heart: I want it to be the first $200M megahit, so I set numbers accordingly.
Shots:
Ray Subers from BoxOfficeMojo goes for 92,4 mln.
Laremy Legel from RopeOfSilicon goes for 85 mln.
Damon Houx from ScreenCrave goes for 85 mln.
I go for 81,9 mln. (3900 cinemas, $21000 per cinema)
Bill Bonfanti from FilmGo goes for 81 mln.Perri Nemiroff from Shockya goes for 80 mln.
Movie Critic Assasins from BreitBart go for 80 mln.
The movie went for 79,11 mln. (3912 cinemas, $20521 per cinema)
C.S. Strowbridge from The-Numbers goes for 78 mln. ("just under 80")
BoxOffice staff go for 75 mln.
HSX go for 72 mln.
Gitesh Pandya from BoxOfficeGuru goes for 70 mln.
I have no numbers from Examiner.
No comments:
Post a Comment