A little reminder – The Avengers

Let the blockbuster season begin!

All Friday we will be welcoming Iron Man 3 in US and Canadian theaters. 

The question is how huge will the opening be? Will it top The Avengers' one? I don't think so, but it all will be clear on Wednesday, when I'm posting my shoot of $ number per theater.

If some lessons have been acquired since last year's opening of The Avengers, shooting this one shouldn't be that hard.

A little reminder to us all:

207,44 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (4349 theaters, $47,698 per theater)
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172,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
170 mln  --  BoxOffice staff
168 mln  --  Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo
167 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
165 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
165 mln  --  Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart
155 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
150 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
144 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

See you on Wednesday!

2013 04 26 – Pain and Gain, The Big Wedding

This Friday we have two openings.

As usual  -- today here are posters, on Wednesday will be my shot of $ number per theater, on Friday will be full shot and numbers from all other shooters.

WHAT IS YOUR FAVORITE MUSCLE, ZIG? SOMETIMES SMALL, BUT SOMETIMES BIG?

This one, Pain & Gain, is an action movie. MPAA rating is R.

Three fans of lifting heavy things and sculpting their bodies decide to kidnap a local crime boss, beat him and get some money from him. I didn't precisely catch in the trailer why they wanted to do this, but it is a minor detail, so I'm skipping that. The job goes quite well -- a shot of the boss, played by the one and only Tony Shalhoub, all in a medical plaster and with one of his arms in a sling, is worth everything. Filled with rage, the boss hires a ruthless enforcer to find kidnappers and make them pay for this.

This premise looks ok, but I see two troubles.

First, I'm not sure what will happen in act three. Basing from trailer, act one is probably ending with gaining help of Dwayne Johnson's character, first culmination of the act two is getting money from the boss, act two second culmination will be the enforcer gets back the money (it isn't shown in the trailer, but it is the most reasonable event). Now, act three should be about getting the money back again, this time with much more blowouts, damaging styrofoam's walls and muscle showing off. But in the trailer I couldn't see anything that backed this up. So I'm starting to worry that the showdown with the enforcer will be in fact the finale battle of the movie. And that way, it feels weaker in terms of dramatic tension.

This was the lesser from two troubles. I'm not sure it will affect the opening's box office that much -- certainly, it will show in reviews aggregated at Rotten Tomatoes. But it is still some shadow lurking behind Pain & Gain.

The second trouble involves the overall mood of the movie. The trailer looked like an easy and entertaining piece of action. There were a few jokes flying around and one of them could sustain even the whole movie ('I know what I'm doing, I saw lots of movies like this!', said by Mark Wahlberg's character). But I didn't see any other jokes based on that classic comedy foundation 'a fish taken out of the water'. We get instead a hilarious joke 'muscle training cures all problems', some jokes about muscles in hands and muscles below the belt and a joke about 'big guy that won't fight'. This doesn't have a glue, necessary to pull off this movie. It could be really great movie to watch, but I'm afraid it will turn just a mediocre one.

So my shot is also on the mediocre side per theater, and any amount of jaw action is going to strengthen this muscle up.

Shots:

26,5 mln  --  HSX
25 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
24 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
23,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (2900 theaters, $8000 per theater)
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22 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
22 mln  --  Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart
21,9 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
21 mln  --  Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo  (via HSX)
20,25 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (3277 theaters, $6178 per theater)
20 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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18,02 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013,  (3277 theaters, $5500 per theater)
18 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
14,75 mln  --  BoxOffice staff

LOVE CAN BE BLIND, BUT OVERALL IT HAS A GOOD SENSE OF DIRECTION

This one, The Big Wedding, is a romantic comedy. MPAA rating is R.

I like romantic comedies, because no matter who their heroes are and what troubles they fall into, the audience gets a proof that love is the greatest thing. It is worth feeling and sharing. And we get a motivation to go home or call someone and tell her/him 'I love you' or 'Thank you for being with me'. I'm not necessarily talking about love in terms of emotional relationship with a woman/man -- this person can be someone from a family or someone we just know and we want her/him to feel good right now.

In these terms, The Big Wedding is a good movie.

An issue of big opening number is an another story, though.

The main thing is it focuses -- at least in the trailer, but I doubt it was changed in the full movie -- on a wrong comedy premise. It introduces a great ironic tension of 'the mother of the groom can't find out parents of the bride got divorced'. But events go in direction of relationship between the father, his ex-wife and his now-wife. The incident that incites whole story is the wedding of young couple, and instead their love story we get a love story of the groom's parents. Sure, it could be great and also great fun, but if this is that good idea, the movie should be rewrited a little to accomodate that change. It didn't, of course.

So I think the number per theater will be small, and the whole number will take place next to February's  Beautiful Creatures' one.

Shots:

12,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (2500 theaters, $5000 per theater)
12 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
11 mln  --  Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo  (via HSX)
11 mln  --  HSX
10 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
10 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
9,9 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
9,25 mln  --  BoxOffice staff
9 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
9 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
7,8 mln  --  Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart
7,59 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (2633 theaters, $2883 per theater)
7,5 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013,  (2633 theaters, $2850 per theater)
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2013 04 19 – Oblivion

This week there is only one opening.

Here's the poster, my shoot will be posted on Wednesday.

WHY DID PEOPLE OF JAPAN START HAVING WORLD WAR II FLASHBACKS?

This movie, Oblivion, is a thriller/suspense movie. MPAA rating is PG.

Do you know why Japanese restaurants stopped delivery of sushi to Tom Cruise's house? They started having World War II flashbacks, as his latest movie would bomb so hard.

I don't care how much money Oblivion has already earned in various countries over the world. This is the weakest movie of this year and the first movie I have such bad vibes against. FX are so sterile they look like made by a student for graduation's thesis. There is no tension, no clear adversary. I don't feel anything when Tom Cruise's character flies over devastated Earth in trailer.

Wait... who knew, I felt something. Something familiar... Oh, yes... an echo of last year's John Carter. Oblivion is in the same league: a big thing that doesn't deliver.

In two weeks nobody will care about this movie (cough*Iron Man 3*cough). And no-one should care now. Do you feel you can throw away two hours of your life? I bet a few critics on RottenTomatoes will be cited with "The title of this movie is really prophetic" or something like this.

Ok... now, here comes time for shooting. I checked numbers for John Carter and it opened in 3749 theaters, with not that low $8050 per theater and $30,18 mln total. We know Oblivion will open in 3800 theaters, and I think per-theater number can be very similar. I'm going with $9000 per theater, because there will be people who want to see this. Fine for them. But I saw the trailer and felt great when it ended -- because I got the warning not to watch it at all costs.

Am I hypocritical? Well, no. I'm not going to see it. I think good about people who see this, but it really doesn't deserve their money and attention.

Shots:

47 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
44 mln  --  Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo
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40 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
40 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
39 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
38 mln  --  HSX
37,05 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (3783 theaters, $9795 per theater)
36,9 mln  --   Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
35 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
34,2 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013.blogspot  (3800 theaters, $9000 per theater)
34,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3800 theaters, $9000 per theater)
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32 mln  --  Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart

  

2013 04 12 – 42, Scary Movie V

Hello in a new week!

Here is a line-up: today -- posters, Wednesday -- shots of numbers per theater, Friday -- full shots with official theaters' counts.

Today we have two openings.

HOW MANY TIMES DO WE WANT TO BE RECALLED WE WERE SECOND-RATE CITIZENS?

This one, 42, is a drama movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.

Last year's Lincoln was ok. It was a movie grounded deep in history, touching problem of racism in law and politics. So it opened wide at very high level of $11859 per theater.

Last year's Red Tails was quite good. It was an action movie laced with a problem of racism in social relations. It opened at good level of $7477 per theater.

This year's 42 has historical background AND quite amount of baseball action. Yet, it feels like an academic lecture about civil rights. The lecture is intriguing, it stirs emotions, but in the end a sermon is served. I'm not sure cinema's audience needs another finger-pointing at faults of their grandfathers. These times better stay in books, and in theaters we expect a shift from everyday reality. This is why I think the opening of this movie will be an average one.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The official theater count on BoxOfficeMojo shows this movie is opening in 3003 theaters.

Shots:

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29 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (2950 theaters, $9831 per theater)
27,49 mln  --  weekend number of the movie  (3003 theaters, $9153 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
23 mln  --  Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo  (number via HSX)
21,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
21,1 mln  --   Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
20,75 mln  --  BoxOffice staff
19,5 mln  --  HSX
19 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
18 mln  --  Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart
17 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
16,07 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3003 theaters, $5350 per theater)
15 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
15 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

WHAT IS TIGHTED MORE THAN HEATHER LOCKLEAR'S FACE?

This one, Scary Movie V, is a comedy movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.

Three of four previous installments of Scary Movie opened with a $40+M figure. This number was achieved three times: in 2000, 2003 and 2006. That's a lot of early teens that can still be amused by fart jokes. The second installment of 2001 year took only 20,5 mln in opening weekend -- but the date was the most unfortunate, because kids usually have other stuff to do on July 4. Next parts 3 and 4 were moved away from national holiday and the franchise returned to high dollar levels. Children grow, but every year new crowds come to theaters searching for a through-the-glass lick of adulthood.

Still, watching statistics shows an obvious weariness of the audience. The part 4 is an embodiment of that: Friday still opened good at $5280 per theater, but Saturday went down to $3732, and Sunday even lower to $2155. I find it reasonable this pattern will continue for part V: Friday -- $4300 (because hard-core fans will show up), Saturday -- $2700 (because they will not find worth talking with friends about Heather Locklear's face, tighted more than one of Charlie Sheen's balls), Sunday -- $1700 (because the day after this one is Monday, typical day of school).

I feel I need to explain why I haven't went with any numbers of a similar movie that opened this January: A Haunted House. It grossed $18,1 mln ($8380 per theater) and got $3145 on Friday. The reason is that it was an R-rated movie, so 11-year olds couldn't show at screenings. Sure, they rented or watched this one on DVD later -- but not at theaters.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The official theater count on BoxOfficeMojo shows this movie is opening in 3402 theaters. It is a pretty high number that with my original shoot of $8700 per theater gives the opening of $29,6M. I fell it being a bit too high. Such wide spreading of screening copies should effectively lower the per theater number for $700-1000. So I correct my Wednesday's shot from $8700 per theater to $7800 per theater.

Shots:

26,54 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3402 theaters, $7800 per theater)

21,4 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3050 theaters, $7016 per theater)
19,4 mln  --  Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart
18 mln  --  BoxOffice staff
18 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
18 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
17,6 mln  --   Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
17,5 mln  --  Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo  (number via HSX) 
17 mln  --  HSX
17 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
16,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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14,16 mln  --  weekend number of the movie  (3402 theaters, $4161 per theater)
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9 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

  

  

2013 04 05 – Evil Dead, Jurassic Park 3D

Wow, looks like a lot of quality openings this Friday...

Posters for now, my shots on Wednesday.

See you!

UPDATE: Really, not that much openings this weekend. I have all five movies from three weekends tagged "2013 04 05", so it looked like a lot. My bad...

April is going to be a very slow month. Seven openings only. Everybody is waiting for Iron Man 3.

Oh, the project is finally closed. Life tastes really sweet when I make dishes or wash hair or ride a stationary bike whenever I want.

Back to business -- today we have two openings.

WILL THE DEAD BREAK THE BOX OFFICE RECORD?

This one, Evil Dead, is a horror movie. MPAA rating is R.

As you probably noticed, I'm one of few shooters that shoot for number of theatres playing each movie. The reason I'm making this remark is because I think the opening number for Evil Dead is closely tied with a that number. The ceiling level for R-rated horrors is at 3400 venues -- last year's Paranormal Activity 4 got 3412. On the other hand, statistics shows Sony likes pushing its movies as wide as possible: 3600+ level apeears very often. How these two opposites will combine?

I think the answer lies in the budget number: around $15M. With that kind of money I would try to maximize the opening weekend -- knowing that next week my audience will go to laugh at horror's cliches in Scary Movie 5. It can be the only way to make money on this movie. So my shot for theaters is record-breaking, 3650.

As for the number per theatre, after watching the trailer I felt fun. Ethereal fun. Swift fun. Adventure fun. It was totally different vibe from -- let's say -- January's Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D. That feeling was also fun, but earth-grounded, sharp-metal-kissed, scream-deranged in its essence. Remember?

Of course, Shiloh Fernandez just doesn't have that charisma of the original's Bruce Campbell. We watched Fernandez in Red Riding Hood where he was okay. But here are waiting legendary boots. He doesn't look as cool as Bruce's Ash. It could reject hardcore fans and in the same time fail pulling new generation into an evening at movies.

But I really like the swift vibe. I'm sure the movie will be a great entertainment IF you watch it. So I shoot for a number bigger than this year's Texas Chainsaw's ($8193), but smaller than Mama's ($10730) and 2010's A Nightmare's on Elm Street (9875): $9326 sounds good to me.

Shots:

34,04 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3650 theaters, $9326 per theater)
32,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3000 theatres, $10833 per theater)
32 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya.
-----------------------------------------------
28 mln  --  Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo.
28 mln  --  Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart.
27,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave.
26 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers.
26 mln  --  BoxOffice staff.
25,78 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (3025 theaters, $8521 per theater)
25,2 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo.
24,5 mln  --  HSX.
24 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.
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22 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner.

DO CHILDREN ROAR THEIR PANTS WHILE WATCHING CRAPPING DINOSAURS?

This one, Jurassic Park 3D, is an action movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.

I imagine producers of this movie are tired people. This was a great opportunity to show something cool, to amaze audience accustomed to 3D with someting extROARdinary. And what have we got? The trailer is exactly the same stuff we saw 20 years ago with thrown some 3d-hot-now info now and then. We know that dinosaurs are alive, dear producers. We have watched the previous version. Now we want a solid excuse to go see this again. We want to -- our children's generation don't, but we do. The 3D alone doesn't carry such impact now as was the case of James Cameron's Avatar. There has to be more.

In the trailer I didn't see this. I think the movie will do okay in theatres in comparison to whole market, but it could be much, much more. What a pity.

Shots:

26,17 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3574 theatres, $7321 per theater)
25 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya.
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18,62 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (2771 theaters, $6720 per theater)
18 mln  --  BoxOffice staff.
17,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (2771 theatres, $6207 per theater)
17,1 mln  --  HSX.
-----------------------------------------------
16,3 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo.
16 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers.
15 mln  --  Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo.
15 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.
14 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner.
14 mln  --  Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart.
13,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave.