Posters for now, my shots on Wednesday.
See you!
UPDATE: Really, not that much openings this weekend. I have all five movies from three weekends tagged "2013 04 05", so it looked like a lot. My bad...
April is going to be a very slow month. Seven openings only. Everybody is waiting for Iron Man 3.
Oh, the project is finally closed. Life tastes really sweet when I make dishes or wash hair or ride a stationary bike whenever I want.
Back to business -- today we have two openings.
WILL THE DEAD BREAK THE BOX OFFICE RECORD?
This one, Evil Dead, is a horror movie. MPAA rating is R.
As you probably noticed, I'm one of few shooters that shoot for number of theatres playing each movie. The reason I'm making this remark is because I think the opening number for Evil Dead is closely tied with a that number. The ceiling level for R-rated horrors is at 3400 venues -- last year's Paranormal Activity 4 got 3412. On the other hand, statistics shows Sony likes pushing its movies as wide as possible: 3600+ level apeears very often. How these two opposites will combine?
I think the answer lies in the budget number: around $15M. With that kind of money I would try to maximize the opening weekend -- knowing that next week my audience will go to laugh at horror's cliches in Scary Movie 5. It can be the only way to make money on this movie. So my shot for theaters is record-breaking, 3650.
As for the number per theatre, after watching the trailer I felt fun. Ethereal fun. Swift fun. Adventure fun. It was totally different vibe from -- let's say -- January's Texas Chainsaw Massacre 3D. That feeling was also fun, but earth-grounded, sharp-metal-kissed, scream-deranged in its essence. Remember?
Of course, Shiloh Fernandez just doesn't have that charisma of the original's Bruce Campbell. We watched Fernandez in Red Riding Hood where he was okay. But here are waiting legendary boots. He doesn't look as cool as Bruce's Ash. It could reject hardcore fans and in the same time fail pulling new generation into an evening at movies.
But I really like the swift vibe. I'm sure the movie will be a great entertainment IF you watch it. So I shoot for a number bigger than this year's Texas Chainsaw's ($8193), but smaller than Mama's ($10730) and 2010's A Nightmare's on Elm Street (9875): $9326 sounds good to me.
Shots:
34,04 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3650 theaters, $9326 per theater)
32,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (3000 theatres, $10833 per theater)
32 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya.
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28 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo.
28 mln -- Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart.
27,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave.
26 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers.
26 mln -- BoxOffice staff.
25,78 mln -- the final weekend number of the movie (3025 theaters, $8521 per theater)
25,2 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo.
24,5 mln -- HSX.
24 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.
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22 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner.
DO CHILDREN ROAR THEIR PANTS WHILE WATCHING CRAPPING DINOSAURS?
This one, Jurassic Park 3D, is an action movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
I imagine producers of this movie are tired people. This was a great opportunity to show something cool, to amaze audience accustomed to 3D with someting extROARdinary. And what have we got? The trailer is exactly the same stuff we saw 20 years ago with thrown some 3d-hot-now info now and then. We know that dinosaurs are alive, dear producers. We have watched the previous version. Now we want a solid excuse to go see this again. We want to -- our children's generation don't, but we do. The 3D alone doesn't carry such impact now as was the case of James Cameron's Avatar. There has to be more.
In the trailer I didn't see this. I think the movie will do okay in theatres in comparison to whole market, but it could be much, much more. What a pity.
Shots:
26,17 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3574 theatres, $7321 per theater)
25 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya.
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18,62 mln -- the final weekend number of the movie (2771 theaters, $6720 per theater)
18 mln -- BoxOffice staff.
17,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (2771 theatres, $6207 per theater)
17,1 mln -- HSX.
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16,3 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo.
16 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers.
15 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo.
15 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru.
14 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner.
14 mln -- Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart.
13,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave.
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