Today we have two openings.
HOW MANY TIMES DO WE WANT TO BE RECALLED WE WERE SECOND-RATE CITIZENS?
This one, 42, is a drama movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
Last year's Lincoln was ok. It was a movie grounded deep in history, touching problem of racism in law and politics. So it opened wide at very high level of $11859 per theater.
Last year's Red Tails was quite good. It was an action movie laced with a problem of racism in social relations. It opened at good level of $7477 per theater.
This year's 42 has historical background AND quite amount of baseball action. Yet, it feels like an academic lecture about civil rights. The lecture is intriguing, it stirs emotions, but in the end a sermon is served. I'm not sure cinema's audience needs another finger-pointing at faults of their grandfathers. These times better stay in books, and in theaters we expect a shift from everyday reality. This is why I think the opening of this movie will be an average one.
FRIDAY UPDATE: The official theater count on BoxOfficeMojo shows this movie is opening in 3003 theaters.
Shots:
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29 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (2950 theaters, $9831 per theater)
27,49 mln -- weekend number of the movie (3003 theaters, $9153 per theater)
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23 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo (number via HSX)
21,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
21,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
20,75 mln -- BoxOffice staff
19,5 mln -- HSX
19 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
18 mln -- Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart
17 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
16,07 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3003 theaters, $5350 per theater)
15 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
15 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
WHAT IS TIGHTED MORE THAN HEATHER LOCKLEAR'S FACE?
This one, Scary Movie V, is a comedy movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
Three of four previous installments of Scary Movie opened with a $40+M figure. This number was achieved three times: in 2000, 2003 and 2006. That's a lot of early teens that can still be amused by fart jokes. The second installment of 2001 year took only 20,5 mln in opening weekend -- but the date was the most unfortunate, because kids usually have other stuff to do on July 4. Next parts 3 and 4 were moved away from national holiday and the franchise returned to high dollar levels. Children grow, but every year new crowds come to theaters searching for a through-the-glass lick of adulthood.
Still, watching statistics shows an obvious weariness of the audience. The part 4 is an embodiment of that: Friday still opened good at $5280 per theater, but Saturday went down to $3732, and Sunday even lower to $2155. I find it reasonable this pattern will continue for part V: Friday -- $4300 (because hard-core fans will show up), Saturday -- $2700 (because they will not find worth talking with friends about Heather Locklear's face, tighted more than one of Charlie Sheen's balls), Sunday -- $1700 (because the day after this one is Monday, typical day of school).
I feel I need to explain why I haven't went with any numbers of a similar movie that opened this January: A Haunted House. It grossed $18,1 mln ($8380 per theater) and got $3145 on Friday. The reason is that it was an R-rated movie, so 11-year olds couldn't show at screenings. Sure, they rented or watched this one on DVD later -- but not at theaters.
FRIDAY UPDATE: The official theater count on BoxOfficeMojo shows this movie is opening in 3402 theaters. It is a pretty high number that with my original shoot of $8700 per theater gives the opening of $29,6M. I fell it being a bit too high. Such wide spreading of screening copies should effectively lower the per theater number for $700-1000. So I correct my Wednesday's shot from $8700 per theater to $7800 per theater.
Shots:
26,54 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3402 theaters, $7800 per theater)
21,4 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (3050 theaters, $7016 per theater)19,4 mln -- Movie Critic Assassins, BreitBart
18 mln -- BoxOffice staff
18 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
18 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
17,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
17,5 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo (number via HSX)
17 mln -- HSX
17 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
16,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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14,16 mln -- weekend number of the movie (3402 theaters, $4161 per theater)
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9 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
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