Unfortunately, the box office of those two movies below also looks like that.
DANGER, DANGER, THIS IS NOT A WILL SMITH MOVIE
This one, After Earth, is an adventure movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
A typical Will Smith movie earns millions of dollars. It is a ligh sci-fi adventure, with colorful explosions, not too complicated plot, and jokes that fits mass taste. Oh, Will Smith plays the lead character.
This movie has adventure on a fantastic planet, colorful views, not too complicated plot involving a MacGuffin. The trailer didn't show any jokes, but this is a minor bump in a road.
The real problem is that Will Smith spends all his movie talking to his movie-but-also-real-life son through an earpiece. So, all the adventure, all fantastic creatures, all chases, fights, and danger, is brought to us -- the audience -- NOT by Will Smith.
So, the question I have to answer in order to set my shoot is this: How many people will buy the ticket in a theater, just a few seconds after looking at the poster and seeing the name 'Will Smith' on it? Fathers with sons will probably look rather at the Fast & Furious 6 poster. Sci-fi fans will see the trailer and get confused since it is not a Will Smith movie they have imagined. Who's left?
I think it will be enough people to get $6000-6500 per theater. But I won't be surprised if it gets just a half of it. This year's summer season is crowded with blockbusters and this movie doesn't have that quality.
Shots:
$ 43,9 mln -- HSX
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 38 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 38 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 36,4 mln -- BoxOffice team
$ 36 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 34 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo (via HSX)
$ 33,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 33 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 28,4 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (3150 theaters, $9016 per theater)
$ 27,52 mln -- the final weekend number of the movie (3401 theaters, $8092 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 21,26 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3401 theaters, $6250 per theater)
WHO ELSE WANTS TO WATCH A BAD RIP-OFF OF LEVERAGE?
This one, Now You See Me, is a thriller/suspense movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
Last year there was a movie: Man on a Ledge. Its premise was great: a man fakes suicide jump from a building to draw police attention and enable his gang-friends make a robbery. This was the first act. In the second means rising troubles: the robbery doesn't go the ways it was intended to go. In effect man on a ledge needs to extend his jumping simulation. And the movie starts to feel long. Oh, and the lead character didn't build any sympathy.
You see, premises like this go very well in a TV series format: Leverage, any CSI, The Mentalist. Viewers already like lead characters, so there's no need to waste time establishing emotional bond.
The same feelings I got when watching the trailer for this movie. Great premise, interesting characters, twists and surprises... and too much time to fill between them.
Man on a Ledge gathered just $2669 per theater on the opening weekend. I think this movie will do better, but it won't cross $5000 per theater.
Shots:
-----------------------------------------------
$ 30 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 29,26 mln -- the final weekend number of the movie (2925 theaters, $10,002 per theater)
$ 27 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 26,7 mln -- HSX
-----------------------------------------------$ 24 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 23 mln -- BoxOffice team
$ 22 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 21,3 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (2800 theaters, $7607 per theater)
$ 19 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 14,2 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2925 theaters, $4854 per theater)
$ 14 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo (via HSX)
$ 12,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
