It should be easier to shoot this one, because there is no tension of 'breaking the records' as was in case of Iron Man 3. It will be quite big, something about mid-low levels of $100+ mln.
GIVE ME MORE POWER, SCOTTY! MORE POWER!
This one, Star Trek Into Darkness, is an adventure movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.
Thursday openings are not nice. Some shooters go for 4-day number, some go for 3-day number.
On one hand, Thursday is a normal workday, so not that many people shows up. On the other hand, hardcore fans do show up, with an obvious preference to late-evening and night screenings.
Thinking in a normal Friday-to-Sunday opening, I was shooting for about $30,000 per theater. With my totally unofficial shot of theaters' number of 4000, it would translate into $120 mln final number.
But! We have an official theater count now and the number has stopped on 3762. It is surprisingly low for a summer blockbuster. To get my shot of $120 mln, Star Trek Into Darkness needs to score about 10 percent more per theater. I'd go that way, I'm not scared by high or low numbers -- but I suspect the Thursday opening may eat that 10 percent.
In the end I go for $120 mln for 4-day opening and for $100 mln for 3-day opening.
Shots (3-day opening only):
$175 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$100,07 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3762 theaters, $26,600 per theater)
$95 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$95 mln -- Bill Bonfanti, FilmGo (via HSX)
$92,5 mln -- HSX
$92 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$90,3 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon (3762 theaters, $24,003 per theater)
$90 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$89 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$87 mln -- BoxOffice team
$78,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
-----------------------------------------------
$70,17 mln -- the final weekend number of the movie (3868 theaters, $18,140 per theater)
$70 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
No comments:
Post a Comment