2013 06 28 – The Heat, White House Down

MONDAY UPDATE: Final weekend numbers!

FRIDAY UPDATE: Full shots!

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: In past four years there wasn't anything like we see this year. Summer movies were bigger than spring movies, sure, but their opening weekend numbers matched their movie potentials. The Watch went for $4026 per theater, Battleship got just $6920 per theater, Prince of Persia gathered $8254 per theater. These numbers are fair. Oblivion's and World War Z's openings are not fair.

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That was another one crazy weekend, when movies performed much better than they should. Is it a seasonal summer effect? I'm going to find out in past years and use that knowledge in Wednesday's shooting.

This week we have two openings.

Pop up on Wednesday for these movies' story analyses and my shots per theater.

WHY DOES SANDRA BULLOCK GET ROLES LEFT BY JENNIFER ANISTON?

This one, The Heat, is a comedy movie. MPAA rating is R.

I like Sandra as an actress. She usually plays normal girls, whose downs are as charming as ups.

But in this trailer, she plays a mix of an early Rachel and doesn't-really-matter-which-season Phoebe from Friends. Her character is not in sync with the world, what makes her ups impactless to the world, and her downs are not interesting because she doesn't accept them as downs. As an effect, she comes as totally uninteresting person.

Melissa's character tries to make up for Sandra's character, but she overdoes it: she is too loud and too reckless to be a full hero of the story. She's just a donkey-riding sidekick.

But... I feel this movie is a perfect offer for a girls-only evening. And when girls go out, they go in groups of four? Five? This should represent quite large number for opening weekend: I think $12,000 per theater is within reach.

SHOTS:

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$ 43 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 42,2 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 39,11 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (3181 theaters, $12,296 per theater)
$ 38,17 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3181 theaters, $12,000 per theater)
$ 37,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3100 theaters, $12,000 per theater)
$ 36 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 36 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 36 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
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$ 35 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 34 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 28 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins

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IS CHANNING TATUM THE MAGNIFICENT THIRD, WHOSE MOVIE EARN MORE THAN IT SHOULD?

This one, White House Down, is a thriller/suspense movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.

Olympus Has Fallen wasn't a failure. Robust moves by Gerard Butler fell on a fertile ground of action fans yearning for kick-them-in-the-guts old school entertainment. That movie gathered $9804 per theater, it was really nice opening.

Although this one is weaker in terms of story, I think Channing Tatum will rise it to levels of Oblivion and World War Z. $40M is a safe shot, but I go for a bit higher: accounting for all fans that look real man of steel.

My shot:

$ 48,33 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3222 theaters, $15,000 per theater)
$ 47,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 45 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 39 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 38,3 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 38 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 35 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 35 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 30,4 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3100 theaters, $9806 per theater)

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$ 24,85 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (3222 theaters, $7713 per theater)
$ 24 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

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2013 06 21 – Monsters University, World War Z

This week we have two openings.

See you on Wednesday with story analyses of these movies and my shots per theater!

FRIDAY UPDATE: All shots are up!

MONDAY UPDATE: The final weekend numbers are up!

HOW MUCH ARE 6-YEAR-OLDS SCARED OF COLLEGE?

This one, Monsters University, is an adventure movie. MPAA rating is G.

The first Harry Potter book made lots of money, because it helped kids fight off fear of going to school. A magical place, full of surprises, mysteries, became a great adventure, even if the one and only mom couldn't share it.

This movie tries to do this for college, without checking if a G-rated audience is interested at all. Do you see a contradiction?

But do kids really need a logical explanation of a story background to go to see a G-rated movie?

Franchise machines are turning, producing toys, clothes, pen-boxes, lunch-boxes, towels, and many more. Billboards are showing two lead heroes, catching kids' attention. It is 12 weeks since parents let children go to a theater last time (it was The Croods). Definitely too long.

If it was a first movie in the franchise, I would go with a low shot of $10,000. But it is a second movie, so I will go higher: $16,500 looks allright to me. Even if the contradiction kids-college will lower the movie's score in review's sites to an abysmal level of Cars 2.

Shots:

$ 91,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3800 theaters, $24,000 per theater)
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$ 82,43 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (4004 theaters, $20,587 per theater)
$ 79 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 78 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 75,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 75 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 74 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 73,9 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 72 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 70 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 66,07 per theater  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (4004 theaters, $16,500 per theater)

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SEXY BRAD VS. SEXY CRUISE

This one, World War Z, is an action movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.

Without long analysis I could write a number: $10,220 per theater. Is is close to the Oblivion's number, but a bit higher. Why? Because Brad is more sexy than Cruise. Leaving that aside, both movies are plagued by story cliches ('Let's find a cure for billiard of zombies!'), both lead actors that can't act, and both lead characters are emotional empty bottles. The family of Brad Pitt's character is only a wall plate of an abstract idea, since he leaves them to search for the cure probably at the end of story act one.

One thing has caught my eye: in the trailer I saw BP's character with a gun in hands. But there was no scene we saw him shooting a zombie. So is this a zombie movie without any true interaction with zombies? Now that is an interesting idea for making movies. We are already getting comedies without laughs, and Will Smith movies without Will Smith, so in a few years this trend may become legitimate in all genres. If you don't support such a way of doing movies, you should better not spend any dollar on this movie.

Shots:

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$ 66,41 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (3607 theaters, $18,412 per theater)
$ 63 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3500 theaters, $18,000 per theater)
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$ 55 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 50 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 48 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 46,8 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 46 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 46 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 45 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 36,79 per theater  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3607 theaters, $10,220 per theater)

$ 34 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

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2013 06 14 – Man of Steel, This Is the End

Congratulations to The Purge for a fantastic opening! This movie deserved every cent.

This week we have two openings. Come on Wednesday for analyses of these movies' stories and my shots per theater.

MONDAY UPDATE: We have official weekend numbers!

WILL DC PUT A SLEEPLESS CURSE ON JOSS WHEDON?

This one, Man of Steel, is an action movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.

I totally get Superman's colors are like a national treasure. But really, someone should take the man to a wardrobe coach. Extreme edition.

While he is there, get him some personality coach.

Every hero's story starts with him or her being weak, vulnerable, afraid to take the path through that dark forest. Superman from the beginning had his options for weakness very limited. He can't be hurt in any way unless he swims in a green kryptonite's light. So if not physical damage can be inflicted upon him, writers can use emotional death only to create a sense of weakness. But weeping and whining hero is not someone we want to see on a screen for 120+ minutes. In the trailer we don't see the CSO (Chief Superman's Opponent), so there is no feeling of danger. This impression is very similar to one I got from Oblivion movie: impressive CGI, okay actors, no emotions. No real story. No reason to pay for it.

If this is a DC's attempt to put a sleepless curse on Joss Whedon, I imagine he will be snoring like a healthy thirty-year-old who was just fed by a natural 34DD cup.

I know, I know. This is still Superman, a national treasure. I have to take it into account when making my shot.

I think it can make a per theater number close to Star Trek Into Darkness' one: about $18,000-19,000. It may even break $20,000 level, but it will fade fast, due to poorer-than-expected reviews.

Shots:

$ 191 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 139 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 117 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 116,62 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (4207 theaters, $27,720 per theater)
$ 115 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 108 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
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$ 102 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (4250 theaters, $24,000 per theater)
$ 100 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 100 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 84,14 per theater  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (4207 theaters, $20,000 per theater)
$ 84 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

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THE PARTY DILEMMA a.k.a. THE THREE I WANT DEAD IN THE FIRST 30 MINUTES

This one, This Is the End, is a comedy movie. MPAA rating is R.

I love parties, conferences, and other events with lots of guests. When I walk past different people, I breathe freedom. I can talk to whoever I want. I can stop talking to whoever I want, anytime I feel bored or someone else just has caught my eye.

With this movie I feel my freedom barred. I enjoy characters of James Franco (the third face, counting from top left corner in a shape of question mark '?'), Seth Rogen (the fifth face), and Jonah Hill (the last face). I want them to talk more, to get more adventures, to experience more thrills at the end of the world. But when on screen appear characters of Jay Baruchel (the second face), Danny McBride (the starting face), and Craig Robinson (the fourth face), I want them to be crushed by a falling stone, or thrown into a fiery abyss, or whatever-but-please-God-let-it-happen-in-the-first-30-minutes.

So hence the dilemma: knowing I can't choose freely who I will spend time with, do I want to go to a party -- a movie -- like this? It has no big concept, characters don't know what to do, neither does audience. It may be fun for a while, but when heaven starts falling, so falls the story of this movie.

So my first shot for this movie was $5000-6000, depending how much star pulling have Franco, Rogen and Hill. But remember, it opens today, on Wednesday. By Friday all the big fans may get this movie scored, and on weekend they go see Man in Red Tight Knickers. I think it is possible, so I lower my shot to $4100 per theater.

Shots:

$ 27 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 25,2 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 25 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 24 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22,9 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3055 theaters, $7496 per theater)
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$ 22 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 20,72 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3055 theaters, $6782 per theater)
$ 20 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 19 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 19 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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$ 12,53 per theater  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3055 theaters, $4100 per theater)

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2013 06 07 – The Internship, The Purge

Here comes another week. Two new openings wave to us at the horizon. Both look to be anti-blockbuster offers. After good opening numbers from Now You See Me, is it still a good time for such movies? I'll find out on Wednesday afternoon. On Friday -- all shots.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Looks like 'official' theater counts were not final. Both movies went wider than projected, so I have updated my shots of them.

MONDAY UPDATE: We have official weekend numbers!

WAY TOO LONG AD FOR HIRING 40+ WORKERS IN MOUNTAIN VIEW, CALIFORNIA

This one, The Internship, is a comedy movie. MPAA rating is PG-13.

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson make great comic duo. Vaughn is the smarter one, more grounded in reality, more results oriented. Wilson is a free spirit, a bit naive, and social awkward. When they rush into turns of life together, they act different -- making it interesting to watch.

But these turns of life must also be interesting. We have to know them from our own lives and at the same time they must be bigger than lives of most of us. Getting broke and taking a job interview -- this is common experience. Looking for a job in the world's most technological company in the world -- that's really something.

Before I started writing this post, my rough shot was about $4000 per theater. Now I'm getting higher: $6100 per theater feels right to me.

It may seem too high, but in past years some strange PG-13 comedies got a money level like this in their opening weekends. 2010's Easy A got $6209 per theater, 2011's The Dilemma got $6060 per theater (Vaughn also starred there).

Of course, if Vaughn and Wilson could play characters of 20-something years of age, this movie could pull younger audience and gather much more dollars. Since they are both 40+, they can't be seen as role models for young IT geeks, craving a job in the most famous property of Mountain View, California.

Shots:

$ 24 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (2400 theaters, $10,000 per theater)
$ 20,53 mln  --  Saturday-updated Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3366 theaters, $6100 per theater)
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$ 18 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 18 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 17,32 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (3366 theaters, $5147 per theater)
$ 17 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 16,4 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 16 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 15,6 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 15,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 14 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

  

ON POWER OF A CATCHY POSTER AND A WELL STRUCTURED TRAILER

This one, The Purge, is a thriller/suspense movie. MPAA rating is R.

I was walking down the street and saw a mother with 10-year old kid going out of a clothing shop. They went past an ad pole. Mother scanned the pole uncounsciously, and she abruptly stopped. Her face became pale. Second later kid realized he walked alone, got back to the mother and looked what she was staring at. 'Cool thing, isn't it, mother?', he asked. 'This is a poster of a movie that will be played in theaters next week. Can I go?'. 'Hell, no' was only to be heard. Rest of the response was stifled as the mother rushed ahead, mumbling about 'damn movies'.

They were looking at the poster of The Purge. The left one before you. This is a moving poster, it breaks everyday apathy, as it did broke for that mother.

The poster on the right is a bland horror-type one. It is not scary and it does not present The Purge as a wonderful entertainment.

And entertainment it is. The trailer is one of the best we got this year. I put it on the same level as trailers of Mama, Warm Bodies, and The Call. It shows an contrasting-therefore-interesting sketch of act one (America, A Nation Reborn, with 1% Unemployment Ratio), the powerful point of attack in the story (letting a fugitive go into the house) and a fantastic premonition of act two (the group of masked people wants the fugitive dead). How the family will be protecting themselves? Will they break their rules of not killing during the night of the Purge? How that will change their internal relationships? Will the fugitive die and who will kill him? These are story questions that lead to a fantastic entertainment for all who appreciate thriller and horror movies.

How many these fans will choose this movie during the opening weekend? I think $7000-8000 is very possible, and this is my shot for The Purge.

Shots:

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$ 34,06 mln  --  the final weekend number of the movie  (2536 theaters, $13,430 per theater)
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$ 24,5 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 21 mln  --  BoxOffice team
$ 19,66 mln  --  Saturday-updated Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2536 theaters, $7752 per theater)
$ 19 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 19 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 15 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon  (3000 theaters, $5000 per theater)
$ 15 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya