The July Predictions Award goes to Box Office team, who red-bracketed 5 out of 9 openings. They crossed 50 per cent line, and they are the first who did it this year. Nice job, guys!
MONDAY UPDATE: Official numbers!
FRIDAY UPDATE: All shots!
WEDNESDAY UPDATE: My shot per theater!
This weekend we have two openings.
-----------------------------------------------
WHY DENZEL WASHINGTON SHOULD BE THE FACE OF THE $50 BILL?
This one, 2 Guns, is an action R movie, from Universal.
Back in the day, there were gods among actors and actresses. They could play in some crap movie, and drove lots of audience in theaters. Their names shone in news headlines, their faces lit up magazines covers.
Then Johnny Depp was miswrote in Pirates of Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and was paired with a not media attractive partner in The Lone Ranger. Will Smith has stepped into a full coaching mode for his son's career. Tom Cruise became a prisoner of Mission Impossible franchise, Bruce Willis has turned into a mascot -- nice to show for a few scenes as in G.I.Joe: Retaliation, but not for a leading role as in Die Hard 5.
Denzel Washington, celebrating his 50th birthday this year, remained on top. The Book of Eli, Unstoppable, Safe House, Flight -- these would be a forgettable action flicks, without him. These movies were not 100M+ domestic hits, but they provided entertainment and at least make even for studios. Denzel Washington is still a safe bet for producers who want a market insurance for their movies.
Making this shot the only thing I worry about is the genre. Action R's in last 4 years (2010-2013) didn't break $ 11,000 per theater level. The closest one was 2010's The Expendables with $ 10,650, followed closely by Mr. Washington's own The Book of Eli with $ 10,540.
If it was action PG-13, I would set for a number close to World War Z's -- about $ 18,000 per theater. But for an R movie, it will be great when it gets $ 15,000-16,000. It will still be a record for the action R subgenre.
Shots:
$ 46,89 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3025 theaters, $ 15,500 per theater)
$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline (welcome!)
$ 34,7 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 34 mln -- Box Office team
$ 34 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily (welcome!)
$ 33 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 30 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 28,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 27,06 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3025 theaters, $ 8945 per theater)
$ 27 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
-----------------------------------------------
$ 22,1 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
-----------------------------------------------
THE FIGHT BETWEEN BORING AND NAUGHTY
This one, The Smurfs 2, is an adventure PG movie, from Sony.
I remember that Smurfette was introduced in a animated The Smurfs series as a black haired spy for Gargamel. She brew a lot of trouble, but in the end she helped Smurfs to escape from the Gargamel's castle. She then transformed into a blondie, as a proof she is a good girl now.
Writers of The Smurfs 2 took this interesting concept and made it even better: what if Smurfette could change back? Would she do that? Why would she want that? How it could be done? All these questions lead to a great movie premise.
But there is a problem. This movie is for kids, so clever story twists don't go too well (Megamind, sniff). Luckily, the poster make it clear for every kid: there is Smurfette and there is her alter-ego friend, with black hair and blue hair streak. These colors remind me of the wonderful Ramona Flowers, from Scott Pilgrim vs The World.
The Smurfs opened with $ 10,489 per theater. The Smurfs 2 should get at least the same number. I just wonder how much advertising money is already been poured into Planes opening, next week. If US and Canada streets are wrapped in blue posters, then this movie should match 2 Guns opening number. But if streets are stuck with Planes teasers, then this movie could have trouble matching its predecessor. (Planes has its own problems, because a tie with Cars franchise is only visible on some poster versions, not in the movie itself.)
The call here is a hard one. I have decided to go with a positive attitude towards The Smurfs 2.
Shots:
$ 47,74 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3866 theaters, $ 12,348 per theater)
$ 35,6 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 30,9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 27,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily (welcome!)
$ 26 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline (welcome!)
$ 25 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 24,2 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 23 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 23 mln -- Box Office team
$ 23 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 22 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 17,55 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3866 theaters, $ 4539 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
-----------------------------------------------
