2013 08 30 – Closed Circuit, Getaway, One Direction: This Is Us

If you think last weekend was awful in terms of new movies, wait for this one. It is official -- a black hole season of 2013 has started, four months full of movies that don't cross $ 4000 per theater.

This week we have three openings.

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

TUESDAY:  My shots per theater!

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'CLOSED' MEANS 'YOU REALLY SHOULDN'T COME IN'

This one, Closed Circuit, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Focus Features.

I'm happy that Rebecca Hall starred in this movie. As an actress, she need jobs and paychecks.

Beside her, the movie itself is forgettable on all other levels.

Shots  (3-day weekend):

$ 4 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 3 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 2,9 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 2,7 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 2,46 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (870 theaters, $ 2833 per theater)
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$ 2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 1,86 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (870 theaters, $ 2140 per theater)

Shot  (4-day weekend):

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$ 3,12 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (870 theaters, $ 3582 per theater)
$ 3 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 3 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
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$ 2,4 mln  --  Box Office team

Donald Shanahan, of Examiner, and ThisIsNotMyName, of BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't shoot this one.
Damon Houx, of ScreenCrave, didn't shoot at all this weekend.

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'GETAWAY" MEANS 'YOU NEED TO RUN, FAST, NOW'

This one, Getaway, is a thriller/suspense PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.

I'm happy that Selena Gomez starred in this movie. As an actress, she need jobs and paychecks.

Beside her, the movie itself is forgettable on all other levels.

Shots  (3-day weekend):

$ 7 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 6,3 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 6 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 5,7 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 5 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 4,8 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 4,75 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2130 theaters, $ 2230 per theater)
$ 4,5 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2130 theaters, $ 2115 per theater)
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Shot  (4-day weekend):

$ 7 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 7 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 6,2 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 5,61 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2130 theaters, $ 2632 per theater)
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Donald Shanahan, of Examiner, didn't shoot this one.
Damon Houx, of ScreenCrave, didn't shoot at all this weekend.

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'ONE DIRECTION' MEANS 'HERE IS DANGER, OUTSIDE SAFE'

This one, One Direction: This Is Us, is a concert movie, from Sony.

Here I don't see any ladies, so I'm not happy.

It also means there is absolutely no reason to see it. This is not even a full concert, just some unfunny moments from the road. Fans with spare money will go, of course. I just wonder will they come to senses if they sit in an empty theater room? Probably not, it is like flu -- you need to sit through it with patience.

Shots  (3-day weekend):

$ 20,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 20 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 20 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 16,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 15,82 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2735 theaters, $ 5783 per theater)
$ 15 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 15 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 11 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 10,39 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2735 theaters, $ 6755 per theater)

Shot  (4-day weekend):

$ 25 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 22 mln  --  Box Office team

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$ 18,47 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2735 theaters, $ 6755 per theater)
$ 17 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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Damon Houx, of ScreenCrave, didn't shoot at all this weekend.

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2013 08 23 – The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, The World's End, You're Next

Last weekend turned out hard to shoot. The main lesson is there is not a single factor that can bring people to theaters. Oprah couldn't do it, Chloe couldn't do it, so no one will ever do it.

This week we have three openings. They look easy.

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

TUESDAY:  My shots per theater!

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YOUNGSTERS WHO DON'T WANT TO WORK IN FAST FOOD CHAIN

This one, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Sony.

The cast of this movie looks nice, but they surely would make a better impact to the world if they take a job in a fast food chain. Starrring in movies won't get them any good.

The rule of genetic copying is that the next copy is weaker than the previous one. This year we had Beautiful Creatures, The Host, and recently the second Percy Jackson. They all disappointed at box office. This one will too.

There is a small riddle: will The Mortal Instruments be earning money according to its genre (adventure -- that suggests a higher opening, something about Percy's $ 4751 per theater) or will it fall into a first installment pit, just as the other two mentioned movies (they made $ 2571 and $ 3310, respectively). I think the pit is the key factor here, my shot reflects it.

Shots:

$ 17,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 12 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 11 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 10,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 10,3 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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$ 9,34 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3118 theaters, $ 2995 per theater)
$ 9 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 9 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
C.S. Strowbridge, of The-Numbers, thinks it won't reach $ 10 mln over the weekend, but he didn't shoot the exact number.
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$ 8,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7,48 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3118 theaters, $ 2400 per theater)

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A JEWEL LYING AT A DUSTED CORNER OF A SPARE ROOM

This one, The World's End, is a comedy R movie, from Focus Features.

I've found this a lot more interesting as a buddy movie than The Hangover. The trailer shows more action than Hot Fuzz's and Shawn of the Dead's -- they are two official-unofficial previous installments of a trilogy.
Another good sign is that last years Focus Features went from movies opening with a forced $ 2000 per theater to a comfortable $ 5000 per theater.

All this suggests great fun and a potential to rock box office.

But this movie is competing with a memory of This Is the End ($ 6782 per theater opening), a celebrity-filled movie that dealt with a similar concept. UK stars -- which I do prefer -- are unfortunately not as strong for mass audience as American ones. I think it will pull just over a half of it.

Shots:

$ 15 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 11 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 10 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
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$ 9,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 8,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,79 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (1551 theaters, $ 5667 per theater)
$ 8,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 7,3 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 7 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 7 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 5,5 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (1548 theaters, $ 3550 per theater)

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A SILENT IMPACT OF A CLASSIC POSTER

This one, You're Next, is a horror R movie, from Lionsgate.

This year is great for horrors. Mama, The Purge, The Conjuring, showed that people are looking for smart adult entertainment.

And this one is the entertainment at its best. Just look at the poster above. It tells about danger, hunting, killing games, victims.

As much as I would like it to top The Conjuring's opening. I don't think it will make it. I expect the number close but a bit smaller than The Purge's. $ 12,000 per theater is within grasp, for sure.

Shots:

$ 29,22 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2435 theaters, $ 12,000 per theater)
$ 17,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 15 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 13,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 13 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 11,9 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers  ('just under $ 12 mln is more likely' -- the exact quote)
$ 10 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9,2 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 7,02 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2437 theaters, $ 2881 per theater)
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Donald Shanahan, of Examiner, didn't shoot for this one.

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2013 08 16 – Jobs, Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia, The Butler

Last weekend was good for my shots. I got perfect Planes and quite right Elysium. I missed We're the Millers and went overboard for Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters. Both times I got right vibes, but chose different numbers. This weekend I'm sticking to vibes.

This week we have four openings.

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

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HERE IS A MOVIE ABOUT JOBS, THAT TOO LIGHTLY ADDRESSES AN ISSUE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

This one, Jobs, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Open Road.

The only reason this movie got made was a media outburst after passing of Steve Jobs. All magazines with the Steve on cover were sold out. Interent posts about him broke records of viewing. So it didn't take a genius to think 'Hey, maybe we could cash in one more way'. So, the movie was made.

This decision won't turn out good. Readers' flood on the internet was made not only by Apple's fans, but also by Apple's haters. And haters will not pay to see the movie. They will criticise it on the net without watching it.

The Social Network, the movie about rising of Facebook, gathered $ 8100 per theater at the opening weekend, three years ago. This one will make a bit smaller number.

Shots:

$ 17,86 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2381 theaters, $ 7500 per theater)
$ 10 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8,3 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 7,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 7 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 6,71 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2381 theaters, $ 2820 per theater)
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$ 2 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

ThisIsNotMyName of BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, and Damon Houx of ScreenCrave didn't post shots for this one.

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THE HERMIONA EFFECT

This one, Kick-Ass 2, is an action R movie, from Universal.

The first installment of Kick-Ass used a premise 'Real superheroes'. This one goes for 'More real superheroes', in the public eye, and for 'Look, Chloe Grace Moretz got older', in the fans eye.

If there was only the first premise, I would go for an opening of the first part minus 20 per cent. But the other message makes me less harsh -- I go for the same opening as three years ago.

Shots:

$ 28 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 25 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 24,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 23 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 22,4 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

$ 22 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 19,11 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2940 theaters, $ 6500 per theater)

$ 17,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave

$ 17,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 13,33 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2940 theaters, $ 4535 per theater)

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LIAM, STOP WASTING YOUR TIME ON CRAP MOVIES AND START COURTING A ROLE OF DARK THOR IN AVENGERS 3

This one, Paranoia, is a thriller/suspense PG-13 movie, from Relativity.

I'm getting a strong Dead Man Down vibe from this one. It comes not from a story itself but from a structure of the story: two big rival companies and a small man caught in their fight. But it is not an 80's anymore. Today money can be made in lots of ways, and throwing oneself into such a dangerous situation is not attractive. I think writers felt that too, because they used a love plot as a device for keeping the main character in the story. You know, it doesn't work.

Dead Man Down was a Film District movie, that was the reason it made just $ 2445 during the opening weekend. Relativity is bigger company, so I think this one will do a bit better. But it will not break $ 4000 per theater level.

Shots:

$ 12 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 10 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 9,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9,5 mln  --  Mitch Mitcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 8,61 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2459 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)

$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 6,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 6 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

$ 6 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
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$ 3,53 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2459 theaters, $ 1435 per theater)

Damon Houx of ScreenCrave didn't post a shot for this one.

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BASICALLY, THE OPRAH MOVIE

This one, The Butler, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Weinstein.

The first commandment of marketing says the most obvious message is the best one. The second commandment says it is better to do the message feel unofficial than make it a loud and clear statement.

So I won't be shocked when on monday afternoon we'll see The Butler taking the top of weekend box office.

The only complicated thing is deciding how much money it will make. I'm not sure Oprah is a better cinema bait than Lincoln. But more people may be interested in modern TV than american history. It is a tough decision, but I go for the modern TV. Sorry, Abe.

Shots:

$ 38,51 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2933 theaters, $ 13,130 per theater)

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$ 24,64 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2933 theaters, $ 8400 per theater)
$ 24,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 24 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

$ 22,5 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 22,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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$ 20,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 20 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 20 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

$ 18,5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins

$ 18 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 17 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

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2013 08 09 – Elysium, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, Planes, We're the Millers

Last week was a crazy one. The Smurfs 2 went bad, 2 Guns went good within the genre but not as great as I thought. Well, I'm still learning how to make proper shots. Missing feels good.

This week we have four openings.

MONDAY:  Official weekend numbers!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

THURSDAY:  My shot per theater!

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WHAT IS THE ELYSIUM? THIS TIME, $ 9000 PER THEATER SHOT!

This one, Elysium, is an action R movie, from Sony.

I see that face of Matt Damon right up here. He's clearly thinking 'What am I doing here?'. I have just the same question. In the trailer he fights robots, there are some sword-wielding figures, some bearded war sergeants, and Jodie Foster who looks as confused as The Damon himself. The best thing is that Foster's character is clearly opposite to Damon's character. But there is not a single shot of them together in the trailer. It means that the whole story conflict is spoonfed to audience rather than played right in the script.

Without the weight of story conflict this movie feels exactly like Oblivion and World War Z: cheap shot at people's money. But unlike these two movies, Elysium is R-rated. Since $ 10,000 is the unenterable elysium itself for past two years, everybody involved in this one will be very pleased with $ 9000 per theater number.

I think they end up disappointed.

Shots:

$ 45,9 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 35,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 35 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 34,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 34,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 34 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
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$ 32 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 30 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 29,81 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3284 theaters, $ 9077 per theater)
$ 28,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 27,59 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3284 theaters, $ 8400 per theater)
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$ 25 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

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GROW UP, PERCY, YOU WILL NEVER BE A WIZARD

This one, Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.

I watched the first movie of Percy Jackson's adventures and I liked it. Not as much as kissing girls, but it was fine. The trailer shows a new heroine, a daughter of Ares, the god of war. It starts an interesting tension in itself (war is typically not the best environment for a girl) and in the movie world: we see her standing against Percy in some competition. Good!

But beside it, we suffer heavy losses. There is no Sean Bean, no Melina Kanakaredes, no Rosario Dawson, no Uma Thurman, no Pierce Brosnan. No big stars -- ok, Nathan Fillion and Stanley Tucci stand as an exception. It also look that writers went the same way as three year ago: there is a danger, heroes sneak out of the demigods camp, they follow some kind of map. No stars to look for and a mindless copy of a story structure makes a feeling the movie is smaller than the first one. It is always a bad sign for box office.

Unless of course we talk about the next installment of Cube.

I need to point out I REALLY don't like Annabeth's hair. She looks uncomfortable and it makes me feel uncomfortable.

At first I went for $ 12,000 per theater number, but I watched the trailer second time and really felt the movie smaller. The first part opened with $ 9308 per theater. I think this one won't match it. Sorry, Percy, you're not a wizard.

Shots:

$ 26,37 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3031 theaters, $ 8700 per theater)
$ 20 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 19,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 19,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 19 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 18,9 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 18,2 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 18 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 18 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 16 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 16 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 14,40 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3031 theaters, $ 4751 per theater)

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HOW MANY THEATER MANAGERS WANT MASS QUARRELS BETWEEN LITTLE BOYS AND THEIR FATHERS?

This one, Planes, is an adventure PG movie, from Disney.

The lack of a red-colored hero is passable (unlike in Turbo), because there is a greater sin producers of this movie have commited. They put something kids love on posters, but not in the movie.

I see that kind of dialogue:
KID: Dad, look, there is Rusty! Let's go see this movie!
DAD: But son, this is about planes, not cars.
KID: There is a logo of Cars above.
DAD: But it is about planes.
KID (starts crying): Daaaaaaaad...........

You see? I don't think this kind of emotional blackmail and manipulation should be involved in going to a cinema with kid. Producers clearly don't give a five about it, because this movie was intended to go straight-to-video in the first place. But look -- it is in theaters. And look, there is a family shouting at each other...

Shots:

$ 27,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 26 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 25,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 25 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 25 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 23,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 22,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22,23 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3702 theaters, $ 6005 per theater)
$ 22,21 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3702 theaters, $ 6000 per theater)
$ 21 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 12 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

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AUDIENCE  ====>  UNKNOWN

This one, We're the Millers, is a comedy R movie, from Warner Bros.

I don't find Jason Sudeikis funny. And Jen without Courteney and other Friends is also not that tasty.

But the comic premise is so good here. A fake family is a great start, but joining four different personalities (as described on the poster) makes it even better.

The only thing is target audience. Who should go see it?

Women? Not really.

Yesterday-I-had-my-21th kids? Not really.

Blokes? Not really.

Who is left on the table?

My point exactly.

But on the other hand: if you go, you will have great fun. Because this is a good comedy movie.

Shots:

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$ 26,42 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3260 theaters, $ 8104 per theater)
$ 25 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 24,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 24 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 23 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 23 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 21,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 20 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 19,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 18,2 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 17,93 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3260 theaters, $ 5500 per theater)
$ 15 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

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