2013 08 16 – Jobs, Kick-Ass 2, Paranoia, The Butler

Last weekend was good for my shots. I got perfect Planes and quite right Elysium. I missed We're the Millers and went overboard for Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters. Both times I got right vibes, but chose different numbers. This weekend I'm sticking to vibes.

This week we have four openings.

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

THURSDAY:  My shots per theater!

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HERE IS A MOVIE ABOUT JOBS, THAT TOO LIGHTLY ADDRESSES AN ISSUE OF UNEMPLOYMENT

This one, Jobs, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Open Road.

The only reason this movie got made was a media outburst after passing of Steve Jobs. All magazines with the Steve on cover were sold out. Interent posts about him broke records of viewing. So it didn't take a genius to think 'Hey, maybe we could cash in one more way'. So, the movie was made.

This decision won't turn out good. Readers' flood on the internet was made not only by Apple's fans, but also by Apple's haters. And haters will not pay to see the movie. They will criticise it on the net without watching it.

The Social Network, the movie about rising of Facebook, gathered $ 8100 per theater at the opening weekend, three years ago. This one will make a bit smaller number.

Shots:

$ 17,86 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2381 theaters, $ 7500 per theater)
$ 10 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8,3 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 7,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 7 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 6,71 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2381 theaters, $ 2820 per theater)
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$ 2 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

ThisIsNotMyName of BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, and Damon Houx of ScreenCrave didn't post shots for this one.

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THE HERMIONA EFFECT

This one, Kick-Ass 2, is an action R movie, from Universal.

The first installment of Kick-Ass used a premise 'Real superheroes'. This one goes for 'More real superheroes', in the public eye, and for 'Look, Chloe Grace Moretz got older', in the fans eye.

If there was only the first premise, I would go for an opening of the first part minus 20 per cent. But the other message makes me less harsh -- I go for the same opening as three years ago.

Shots:

$ 28 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 25 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 24,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 24 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 23 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 22,4 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

$ 22 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 19,11 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2940 theaters, $ 6500 per theater)

$ 17,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave

$ 17,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 13,33 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2940 theaters, $ 4535 per theater)

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LIAM, STOP WASTING YOUR TIME ON CRAP MOVIES AND START COURTING A ROLE OF DARK THOR IN AVENGERS 3

This one, Paranoia, is a thriller/suspense PG-13 movie, from Relativity.

I'm getting a strong Dead Man Down vibe from this one. It comes not from a story itself but from a structure of the story: two big rival companies and a small man caught in their fight. But it is not an 80's anymore. Today money can be made in lots of ways, and throwing oneself into such a dangerous situation is not attractive. I think writers felt that too, because they used a love plot as a device for keeping the main character in the story. You know, it doesn't work.

Dead Man Down was a Film District movie, that was the reason it made just $ 2445 during the opening weekend. Relativity is bigger company, so I think this one will do a bit better. But it will not break $ 4000 per theater level.

Shots:

$ 12 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 10 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 9,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9,5 mln  --  Mitch Mitcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 8,61 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2459 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)

$ 8 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 6,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 6 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

$ 6 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
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$ 3,53 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2459 theaters, $ 1435 per theater)

Damon Houx of ScreenCrave didn't post a shot for this one.

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BASICALLY, THE OPRAH MOVIE

This one, The Butler, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Weinstein.

The first commandment of marketing says the most obvious message is the best one. The second commandment says it is better to do the message feel unofficial than make it a loud and clear statement.

So I won't be shocked when on monday afternoon we'll see The Butler taking the top of weekend box office.

The only complicated thing is deciding how much money it will make. I'm not sure Oprah is a better cinema bait than Lincoln. But more people may be interested in modern TV than american history. It is a tough decision, but I go for the modern TV. Sorry, Abe.

Shots:

$ 38,51 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2933 theaters, $ 13,130 per theater)

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$ 24,64 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2933 theaters, $ 8400 per theater)
$ 24,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo

$ 24 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner

$ 22,5 mln  --  Box Office team

$ 22,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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$ 20,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily

$ 20 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 20 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon

$ 18,5 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins

$ 18 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline

$ 17 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya

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