2013 08 23 – The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, The World's End, You're Next

Last weekend turned out hard to shoot. The main lesson is there is not a single factor that can bring people to theaters. Oprah couldn't do it, Chloe couldn't do it, so no one will ever do it.

This week we have three openings. They look easy.

MONDAY:  Official numbers!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

TUESDAY:  My shots per theater!

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YOUNGSTERS WHO DON'T WANT TO WORK IN FAST FOOD CHAIN

This one, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Sony.

The cast of this movie looks nice, but they surely would make a better impact to the world if they take a job in a fast food chain. Starrring in movies won't get them any good.

The rule of genetic copying is that the next copy is weaker than the previous one. This year we had Beautiful Creatures, The Host, and recently the second Percy Jackson. They all disappointed at box office. This one will too.

There is a small riddle: will The Mortal Instruments be earning money according to its genre (adventure -- that suggests a higher opening, something about Percy's $ 4751 per theater) or will it fall into a first installment pit, just as the other two mentioned movies (they made $ 2571 and $ 3310, respectively). I think the pit is the key factor here, my shot reflects it.

Shots:

$ 17,5 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 12 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 11 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru

$ 10,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 10,3 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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$ 9,34 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3118 theaters, $ 2995 per theater)
$ 9 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 9 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
C.S. Strowbridge, of The-Numbers, thinks it won't reach $ 10 mln over the weekend, but he didn't shoot the exact number.
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$ 8,1 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7,48 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3118 theaters, $ 2400 per theater)

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A JEWEL LYING AT A DUSTED CORNER OF A SPARE ROOM

This one, The World's End, is a comedy R movie, from Focus Features.

I've found this a lot more interesting as a buddy movie than The Hangover. The trailer shows more action than Hot Fuzz's and Shawn of the Dead's -- they are two official-unofficial previous installments of a trilogy.
Another good sign is that last years Focus Features went from movies opening with a forced $ 2000 per theater to a comfortable $ 5000 per theater.

All this suggests great fun and a potential to rock box office.

But this movie is competing with a memory of This Is the End ($ 6782 per theater opening), a celebrity-filled movie that dealt with a similar concept. UK stars -- which I do prefer -- are unfortunately not as strong for mass audience as American ones. I think it will pull just over a half of it.

Shots:

$ 15 mln  --  Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 11 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 10 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
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$ 9,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 8,8 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,79 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (1551 theaters, $ 5667 per theater)
$ 8,5 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 8 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 7,3 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 7 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 7 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 5,5 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (1548 theaters, $ 3550 per theater)

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A SILENT IMPACT OF A CLASSIC POSTER

This one, You're Next, is a horror R movie, from Lionsgate.

This year is great for horrors. Mama, The Purge, The Conjuring, showed that people are looking for smart adult entertainment.

And this one is the entertainment at its best. Just look at the poster above. It tells about danger, hunting, killing games, victims.

As much as I would like it to top The Conjuring's opening. I don't think it will make it. I expect the number close but a bit smaller than The Purge's. $ 12,000 per theater is within grasp, for sure.

Shots:

$ 29,22 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (2435 theaters, $ 12,000 per theater)
$ 17,5 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 15 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14,6 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 13,5 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 13 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, MovieCriticAssassins
$ 11,9 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers  ('just under $ 12 mln is more likely' -- the exact quote)
$ 10 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9,2 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln  --  Box Office team
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$ 7,02 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (2437 theaters, $ 2881 per theater)
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Donald Shanahan, of Examiner, didn't shoot for this one.

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