This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
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This one, Insidious Chapter 2, is a horror PG-13 movie, from FilmDistrict.
On one hand, there was no apparent reason for flopping of You're Next. It could easily be a start of a successful Scream-like franchise, with similar load of blood, throat-slashing, and intelligently served dosages of spine creeps and breath holders.
On second hand, The Conjuring, a movie based purely on scaring factor, with not that original ideas, went for a fourth opening in horror genre in four years, with $ 14,418 per theater.
But... the first installment of Insidious gathered just $ 5511 on its opening weekend, two years ago. That time it was rated as an R movie.
But... it is now a horror PG-13 movie, so younger kids want to see it and be scared.
But... they have taste and they don't fall for every movie they can find at theaters. Especially one, they can't understand unless they rent the first one.
Two weeks ago I made a chart of new movies' openings in last four years. Numbers tell me that this weekend should be much better than last one, the next one will be down (looking at line-up it's a no-brainer), and the last weekend of September will again be good.
Taking that into consideration, I'm shooting for a higher number for this movie than I thought I would.
Shots:
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$ 40,27 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3049 theaters, $ 13,208 per theater)
$ 40 mln -- Box Office team
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$ 35 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 32,5 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 32,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily$ 31 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 27 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 26 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 26 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 23,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon$ 23 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 21,34 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3049 theaters, $ 7000 per theater)
$ 21 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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THIS POSTER DOES HAVE A TARANTINO-SLASH-RODRIGUEZ FEELING, RIGHT?
This one, The Family, is a comedy R movie, from Relativity.
There was a time when the name of Besson was as respected as the name of Shyamalan is respected now. After a couple of highly entertaining movies both of them rested on his back and tried to build a movie franchise. Too bad for them, audience didn't bought it. So they decided to return, not in broad daylight, but in a cover of shadows. Shyamalan made deal with the Smiths to direct a kid adventure movie with both of them (After Earth), Besson went for a bigger bang.
I love The Family trailer, I put it on the level of best trailers of this year. It tells a whole story of the family, shows their unique, mob-violence based approach on solving up neighbourhood's crises. The only thing I'm afraid about is story pacing. I assume the first part of the movie is a visit from the past with a flashback telling how the family got where they are now. Then we have a series of family events in town, resulting in assassins getting to know where the family is and coming to get them. Then we have clever fights between family members and killers. There is a clear drama (survival), but how they will win, if we don't know who the lead opponent is?
In Whole Nine Yards, one of my all-time faves and a similar though not that violent mob-killing comedy, the opponent in shape of Kevin Pollak's character was established early (just right after Oz recognised Jimmy) and early he was tied into a story (Oz flied to Chicago to meet him and sell Jimmy out -- the end of the first act). In The Family I don't see that character -- that makes me uneasy about how writers solved the third act and the finale. It may still be entertaining, but in the same time it maybe not involving for an audience.
The thoughts above may look like a pointless rambling that doesn't affect opening numbers. But in movies like this the opponent is the second reason people want to see it -- they want to see that opponent losing. Since it is not clear here, I'm going for lower opening number than I could.
Shots:
$ 22,44 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3091 theaters, $ 7260 per theater)
$ 18 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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$ 14,04 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3091 theaters, $ 4541 per theater)
$ 14 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 11,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 11,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon$ 11,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 11 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 10,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline$ 9,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 9 mln -- Box Office team
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 3 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
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