This weekend we have four openings.
WEDNESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
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HOW TO MISREAD YOUR AUDIENCE -- A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION
This one, Baggage Claim, is a romantic comedy PG-13 movie, from Fox Searchlight.
Lesson 1: Make a PG-13 movie with a 30-year-old lead.
Their problems may seem the same -- finding a right guy to invite to a sister's wedding, or to a school dance night, or having a crush on too much guys at the same time. But emotions, thougts, and the most important -- actions, are completely different. The audience senses it, and refuses to buy tickets.
Lesson 2: Advertise it as a rom com instead of a comedy with a love plot.
This is another small distinction the audience feels perfectly. Romcoms show a difference between lovers (social, economic, racial, and so on), and how they trump it. Comedy with a love plot focuses on a hero's efforts to achieve some goal (even emotional one), and love happens along the lines as a bonus or as an obstacle. Baggage Claim is a clear type two, but its ads try creating the first type impression. The result is a clear dissonance for the audience, and a lack of interest in buying tickets.
Lesson 3: Schedule its opening when everybody starts thinking about coming winter.
Spring and early summer are perfect times for love movies. They wake in the audience a need or an anticipation of coming events of dating, proms, summer romances. Autumn wakes only a reminder to check winter boots, warm jackets, and honey supplies in food lockers.
Since we didn't see this movie yet, we need to use another one as an example of all three lessons: 2011's What's Your Number?. It is strikingly similar, even their opening dates match. I copy its per theater number exactly for this movie's one.
Shots:
$ 12 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 11,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 10 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 9,03 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2027 theaters, $ 4455 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 8,3 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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$ 8 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 8 mln -- Box Office team
$ 7,5 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 7,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 4 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 3,66 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2027 theaters, $ 1806 per theater)
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This one, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, is an adventure PG movie, from Sony.
I have a weird feeling when I see this poster. It reminds me of Innerspace, a movie about small people travelling through liquids and crawled spaces inside other people bodies. Or maybe I think about Once Upon a Time... Life, an animated series about how human body works? Either way, I see the poster, I feel like looking at some kid's stomach, afternoon. And I feel my own has generated some waves now. Ugh... I saw the first movie (don't remember a bit about it, though), but definitely I'm going to miss this one. Drink, popcorn, stomach waves -- they don't get along very well.
Back to the shooting business -- This movie is another example of the case 'No one really wanted this, but we were too lazy to come up with a new concept'. This happened for Cars 2, Happy Feet Two, Men in Black 3, probably Riddick also. All these movies made about $ 8000 per theater opening, and it is the number I shoot for about.
Shots:
$ 47 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 46,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 45 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 45 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 45 mln -- Box Office team
$ 44 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 43 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 42 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 41 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 40 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 34,02 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (4001 theaters, $ 8502 per theater)
$ 32,81 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (4001 theaters, $ 8200 per theater)
This one, Don Jon, is a romantic comedy R movie, from Relativity.
This is another comedy with a love plot trying to make a rom com this weekend. Why can't it be a simple drama? It fits perfectly, box office opening range could reach higher numbers, JGL's reputation wouldn't hurt. Especially, that trailer reveals there is too few laughs to justify comedy genre. The trailer itself starts wonderfully, but after revealing the lead character's hobby it falls flat. Is it a big society problem? Does it ruin that much marriages? Or is it just an impostor topic, easy to tell about instead looking into human's declining level of managing emotions? I think it is, and that's making the whole movie pointless exercise in writing, acting and directing. Watching by the audience, also.
There are three factors I take into consideration for my shot. First, com roms R-rated were performing terribly last four years. They didn't break $ 3700 per theater. Second, JGL gets much buzz, but his solo movies aren't blockbusters in terms of box office money.
This lead to third, the Oscar sucker season. I sense JGL can be a contender for this year's Best Actor award. Will this movie help him get a nomination? Probably, yes, because promoting it he can appear on a numerous talk shows and score points in media exposure.
So I'm going a bit higher than this movie deserves.
Shots:
$ 12,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 12,1 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 12 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 11,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 11,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 11 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 11 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10,5 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2422 theaters, $ 4337 per theater)
$ 10,2 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 10 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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$ 9,4 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 9 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 8,68 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2422 theaters, $ 3583 per theater)
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This one, Rush, is a drama R movie, from Universal.
I like Chris Hemsworth. He appears to me as an honest man who doesn't try to be a hot actor. He is confident in himself, but doesn't act in an overwhelming way.
But his movie choices for his carrer are odd (Thor included). His characters are all second tier, memorable, but without true impact to a story.
This one feels exactly the same. The drama, conflict between two racers, is beautiful. But the accident (I'm not spoiling, because the movie is based on true events) happens for a second lead character, taking him into a spotlight. Chris's character stays behind. 'Everybody's driven by something' -- I mockingly jabbed this tagline in headline. Chris is sadly driven by other actors. Does he have time to grow as a true star? I wish, it's his fourth year of acting, but he needs to focus on something.
For shooting, I go with a medium drama R number. I don't raise it for the Oscar sucker season, I don't see it as a contender, maybe for the best director (Ron Howard), or best shooting (the race scenes look awesome).
Shots:
$ 36 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 15 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 14 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 13,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 13 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 13 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 12,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 12,4 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2297 theaters, $ 5400 per theater)
$ 11,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 11 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 11 mln -- Box Office team
$ 10,01 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2297 theaters, $ 4360 per theater)
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