This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
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WATCH OUT, OSCAR, TOM HANKS EYES FOR YOU, AGAIN!
This one, Captain Phillips, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Sony.
The trailer looks interesting. There is a clear conflict with pirates, there is also a clear sympathy for Hanks' character. He suspected danger beforehand and was left to face it up on his own by call center operator. It is definitely more engaging in terms of story than Gravity. In terms of actors, Sandra Bullock is more engaging than Tom Hanks to me, but I'm a guy, so it's completely understandable. Captain Phillips should get $ 8000-9000 per theater easily.
The question is: will it get more, having hard competition in last weekend's Gravity? Or. putting it in context of box office analysis: what is the chance of having to weekends in a row with $ 10,000+ per theater openings?
It turns out it's a quite good chance.
In March, there was The Croods, and Tyler Perry's Temptation with G.I.Joe: Retaliation next weekend. In April, there was 42, with Oblivion following it (technically, they both earned just below $ 10,000 per theater). In May, there was Iron Man 3... well, starting with Iron Man 3 there was the whole summer of weekend after weekend openings over $ 10,000 per theater.
Ok, now with a clear conscience I can go with $ 10,738 per theater opening.
Shots:
$ 32,43 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3020 theaters, $ 10,738 per theater)
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$ 27 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 25,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 25,72 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3020 theaters, $ 8516 per theater)
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 24,9 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 24,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 23,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily-----------------------------------------------
$ 21 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 21 mln -- Box Office team
$ 18 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 16,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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AND THE WINNER OF MR PRISON 1978 THE BEAUTY PAGEANT IS...
This one, Machete Kills, is an action R movie, from Open Road.
In a perfect world, where adults have a sense of humour, a distance to their lives, and exercise much less hypocrisy, this kind of movie would earn money in spades. It is light yet brutal, funny yet deals with death, erotic without turning into porn. And the lead character looks like a winner of male beauty pageant Mr Prison 1978.
But the world is like it is. Movies like this one will not be a blockbuster. They can create media buzz with star appearances (Lady Gaga and Charlie Sheen, most notably here), but a dissonance between comic book violence and mainstream popculture is probably too big for most fans of these stars.
I'm going with a similar opening like the previous Machete in 2010 got ($ 4276 per theater). Oh, well, I'm throwing a bit more. I have faith in people.
Shots:
$ 12 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 11,73 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2538 theaters, $ 4620 per theater)
$ 11 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 10 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers ('just under')
$ 8,8 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,7 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 8,6 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 8,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 8 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 7,5 mln -- Box Office team
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$ 3,84 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2538 theaters, $ 1512 per theater)
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