Machete Kills bombed hard. I fast-forwarded the first installment, and it was clear what was the reason: not enough fun. I guess we still wait for Sin City 2.
This weekend we have three openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
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A HIGH SCHOOL REVENGE HANDBOOK
This one, Carrie, is a horror R movie, from Sony.
This weekend the cume box office of new movies could go either into a $ 65-70M, or a $ 30-35M territory. Carrie is the only movie capable of switching these routes. Will it punch through $ 35M ceiling?
Or, rephrasing this question: will Chloë Grace Moretz lead it to be the best opening of Stephen King's movie ever? Like totally best one?
Chloë Grace Moretz follows in footsteps of Natalie Portman: starting her career early, being both fans' and critics' favorite, taking on many challenging and exciting roles. What Miss Moretz lacks, is a powerful leading role. We all remember Portman's character in Leon the Professional. Will we remember Moretz's character of Carrie? I don't think so. The lead actor/actress strength comes from a conflict with the second character (opponent or sidekick). Jean Reno as the killer is far more significant and conflict-rising than Julianne Moore as the mother: he is the central person on Leon's posters, she doesn't appear on any of movie posters.
I think it will be the best King's movie opening, but won't be enough to get whole weekend into $ 60M level.
Shots:
$ 28 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 28 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya (thank you, Perri, for clarification)
$ 27,23 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3157 theaters, $ 8624 per theater)
$ 25 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 24,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24 mln -- Box Office team
$ 24 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 22,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 22,4 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 21 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
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$ 16,10 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3157 theaters, $ 5100 per theater)
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I HAD AN ESCAPE PLAN, BUT MY DOG ATE IT THIS MORNING
This one, Escape Plan, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Lionsgate.
For prison break movies to be fun to watch, two conditions must be met: the unjustice that ended with imprisonment of the lead hero must be personal and known from the start (audience have to cheer on breaking free attempts), and the prison (or more precisely, traps/obstacles) must be really challenging, both mentally and physically. This is why some of Saw's traps or The Final Destination's killings were brilliant.
Unfortunately for Escape Plan, the trailer lacks both of conditions. The Stallone's lead hero doesn't know why he is in prison. The prison itself looks futuristic, but in the end all they need is muscle and/or rifle. That means there is no dramatic conflict that could grab and hold viewers' attention. It's a pity, because this is the second movie of Schwarzenegger this year that could be great, but turned out mediocre (still can't believe The Last Stand turned that bad).
Shots:
$ 13 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 12,3 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 11,82 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2883 theaters, $ 4100 per theater)
$ 11 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 11 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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$ 10,2 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 10 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 9,89 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2883 theaters, $ 3429 per theater)
$ 9,6 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 9 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 9 mln -- Box Office team
$ 8,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers just under $ 9 mln
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IS IT A MOVIE ABOUT PHILOSOPHICAL ROOFTOP CONVERSATIONS, WITH CITY LIGHTS IN BACKGROUND? IN PART, YES
This one, The Fifth Estate, is a drama R movie, from Walt Disney.
I have no big expectations for this movie. I see the value that someone told the story of WikiLeaks from the perspective of society and its right to know machinations of politicians. But I don't see much people want to see it in theaters. Even to see Benedict Cumberbatch who is an easy bet to get an Oscar nomination. Not when they can still see two powerful dramas (Gravity, Captain Phillips).
Shots:
$ 8,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 7,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 6 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 6 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 5,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 5,1 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 5 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 4,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 4 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 3,89 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (1769 theaters, $ 2200 per theater)
$ 3,8 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 1,67 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (1769 theaters, $ 946 per theater)
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ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, didn't post this movie.
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