Lesson one: nostalgia is a one restive horse. You play too little, no one cares about a remake. You play too much, people cling to an old version like it would be send into eternity of oblivion by a new movie.
Lesson two: studios do misread reasons that persuaded audience to see an old version (or the first installment). Carrie was playing at psychological thriller's side of the genre fence rather, than at visual horror's side. Modern gadgets and clothes didn't make it more creepy, thus the remake missed its point. It worked like a champ for Evil Dead, for example. Escape Plan as a star vehicle of Stallone and Schwarzenegger also didn't worked, because an audience wanted to see an all out war between Rambo and Commando -- not two old men trying to catch their breath after a short run. I'm pretty sure that a movie like this, even without both brand actors, would make some good money.
That's a wrap for last weekend.
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
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This one, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, is a comedy R movie, from Paramount.
I like watching first two or three seasons of Two and a Half Men. Jake was a small kid then, his naive reactions to glimpses of Charlie's life (booze, boobs, poking Alan) made this show working. In one of episodes, Jake was complaining that girls got mean when they grew breasts. He then started to act like a girl: he talked about a sports bra, and Alan not elbowing him in the boob.
In Bad Grandpa we have the same comical theme pushed further -- the 'Jake' disguised as a girl (the pink dress rocks!) went to a girl beauty pageant. But there was more, we got a topper: a stripper routine!
Yes, I laughed during the trailer. The funeral stunt, the Cinnamon scene, the beauty pageant stunt were great fun. Offensive to some people, yes! But funny in a good, comic-technical way! The Grandpa persona is much stronger than Johnny Knoxville himself. The contrast to a stereotype of grandpa (associated with wisdom, politeness, restraint behavior) is hilarious in itself, pairing him with a 'Jake' kid adds another layer to comic potential. I hope the rest of the movie is packed with more comical gems like scenes featured in the trailer.
Now, here comes the hard part: shooting.
In 2010, the last installment of Jackass franchise got $ 16,343 per theater and $ 50,35M total on its opening weekend, spurring a lot of America-went-down-the-toilet rants. Tyler Perry's Madea franchise went for $ 10,000 per theater level in couple of last incarnations, I take it as a base level for Bad Grandpa's number.
There are two questions is this: will audience of Jackass guys go for a solo movie? In a similar way, I could ask: will a single guy from One Direction sell out a concert? Will a single member of Take That make a successful career? (We know Robbie Williams did.)
The second question is this: will this comedy premise reach a lot of people previously not interested in crazy physical stunts?
The english male magazine Nuts in its latest issue run a two-page centerfold with a subtitle like this: 'Ten reasons why you need to see 2013's funniest film!'. I agree with that statement and I keep my fingers crossed. I appreciate good jokes.
Shots:
$ 60,05 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3336 theaters, $ 18,000 per theater)
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 32,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32,06 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3336 theaters, $ 9609 per theater)
$ 31,3 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 31 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 30,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 30 mln -- Box Office team
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$ 28,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 28 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 26 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
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HOW A CHEMICAL SUBSTANCE TRIGGERS CONTRAST BEHAVIOR IN VARIOUS PEOPLE
This one, The Counselor, is a thriller/suspense R movie, from Fox.
This movie is clearly as forgettable as Runner Runner from three weeks past. A master assassin gets played by some crook and it dangers his personal life he kept apart all those years -- not much interesting, right?
What is interesting is what kind of stuff got in blood streams of Bardem and Pitt. In the trailer -- and on the poster, too -- they look waaay out of the norm. Bardem looks agitated, always smiling, his hair all standing up. Pitt looks scared, as if he saw a shadow of a giant snail coming towards him from behind horizon. It could be a nice comedy, if the movie didn't take itself seriously. Sadly, it does take.
Two good things: Cameron Diaz looks really great, and I get a chance to tell Mr. Fassbender to call Whitney Cummings. She will explain all details.
As for shooting, I get mixed signals. On one hand, this year's Side Effects, similar ensemble R thriller got $ 3845 per theater opening. Last year's Savages, also ensemble R thriller got $ 6095 per theater opening. I'm leaning towards Savages' number, but I'm not sure of star power of Brad Pitt in R movies. He usually played in PG-13 movies, there he drove great results. But he definitely is not James Franco, and the trailer talks less action than Savages. I'm closing on a lower end.
Shots:
$ 16 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 14,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14 mln -- Donald Shanahan, Examiner
$ 14 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 13,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 12 mln -- Box Office team
$ 11,72 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3044 theaters, $ 3850 per theater)
$ 10,9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (just under 11)
$ 10 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
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$ 8,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 8,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 7,84 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3044 theaters, $ 2577 per theater)
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