But there comes a trap, when two following installments of a movie franchise differ in 3D area. I fell into it last weekend with Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa. I modeled its opening after 3D-only the franchise's installment. I should go after Jackass 2, raise it up a bit according to its comical value and franchise recognition (the same situation happens in Fast & Furious franchise), as did most my fellow predicters.
It is also interesting to see that actors and actresses don't cross genres as easy as they used to. Michael Fassbender, a stellar drama actor (his role in X-Men: First Class also included a drama element), didn't lead a thriller (The Counselor) into high opening. Will Tom Hanks', or Denzel Washington's, or Brad Pitt's crossings from comedies to dramas or from dramas to actions not happen in next years? We'll see.
This weekend we have three openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official weekend numbers!
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THE NEVERENDING STORY OF YEAR 2013
This one, Ender's Game, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.
Cowboys and Aliens. Prince of Persia. John Carter. Clash/Wrath of the Titans. Elysium. Oblivion. After Earth. World War Z with Brad Pitt on a bench. This is the lode of movies Ender's Game is trying to tap into. With it comes the most likely number per theater: something around $ 8000-9000.
Producers aimed did to reduce the Orson Scott Card book's political layer. Judging by the trailer, they succeeded. Is it a good thing? I think so. We live in a world where various groups train their kids in killing opponents. In the book we are explained why children are being used as a weapon in war. We get all the information, because we don't need to finish it in 114 minutes. Movies have their time limits -- 114 minutes in this case -- so there is not enough time to do it properly.
The outcome is the movie based on motives from the book, rather than based on the book itself. SF purists will cry in comments sections all over the internet. But the audience, children 6 to 10 (boys and girls, as well), will have great fun, will get great memories, and maybe will get to like SF as a genre. Just as I had, back in 1984, thanks to The Neverending Story.
As I explained in the Free Birds's paragraphs, I raise my shot for Ender's Game by $ 1700 per theater.
Shots:
$ 37,82 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3407 theaters, $ 11,100 per theater)
$ 30,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 30,2 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 30 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------$ 28,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 28,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 28 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 27,02 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3407 theaters, $ 7930 per theater)
$ 27 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 27 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 26,2 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
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Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
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I WON'T DO CHEAP PUNS, BECAUSE I RESPECT KEBAP SHOP OWNERS
This one, Free Birds, is an animated comedy PG movie, from Relativity.
Pairing this movie's theme and an american calendar holiday might seem a good marketing idea. But on this day how many parents will go to theaters with their kids? There will be family gatherings, generations unite at dinner tables. If younger kids excuse themselves from adults, they will be still playing inside. Even if they persuade an older sister or brother to take them out, chances are they will end up on an Ender's Game screening instead. More thrills, more fun going to an 'adult' movie.
With shooting, at first I went for $ 4950 per theater, similar to Escape from Planet Earth's number. Then I wrote the above paragraph, and I really like its way of thinking. So I lower my shot to $ 3250. The difference will be transferred to the Ender's Game prediction.
Shots:
$ 22 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 20 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 18,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 27 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 17,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 17,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 17,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17,5 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
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$ 16,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily-----------------------------------------------
$ 15,81 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3736 theaters, $ 4231 per theater)
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$ 14 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,14 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3736 theaters, $ 3250 per theater)
$ 11 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
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A BRILLIANT SATIRE ON TODAY'S PARTY GENERATION
This one, Last Vegas, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from CBS Films.
A lot of people will dismiss this movie as a bad ripoff of The Hangover franchise. They will criticise actors, plot, forced laughs, level 5 of 10 attractive women in pool and party scenes. They will miss the point.
It is a brilliant satire on today's party generation. If you behave the way depicted in the movie, if you lie to family members, if sneak out of a house in a pathetic way, if your only dream is to get drunk, sleep curled at friend's side, wake up at a stranger's place, it is a sign you have not much life left.
The opening number of this movie will bring another level of satire: no one cares about these people.
Shots:
$ 18,3 mln -- Box Office team
$ 18,3 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
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$ 16,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 16,33 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3065 theaters, $ 5329 per theater)
$ 16,2 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 15 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 15 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 15 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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$ 14,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 14,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 14 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 14 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline$ 14 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 3,52 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3065 theaters, $ 1150 per theater)
Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.
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