2013 11 08 – Thor: The Dark World

Last weekend I learnt good ideas on a single family scale don't translate well into massive market, if not backed by marketing money or online buzz. Switching audiences from Free Birds to Ender's Game didn't happen, so both these shots of mine went wide. As usual, it was a good lesson.

This weekend we have one opening.

TUESDAY:  My shot per theater!

FRIDAY:  All shots!

MONDAY:  Official weekend numbers!

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ADVENTURES OF A TANK WITH A SENSE OF HUMOR

This one, Thor: The Dark World, is an action PG-13 movie, from Paramount.

In role playing games' jargon, a tank is a character with high strength and endurance. His job is to keep opponents away from physically weaker members of a team: mages, archers, thieves, healers. In the movie team of Avengers there are two tanks: Hulk and Thor. Hulk is a classic one, while Thor can also be a distance player (thanks to his hammer and thunders).

I write about it, bacause it is relevant to box office numbers (and to future solo Hulk movies). Tanks are not the most interesting lead characters. They are not the brightest folks, so the story is usually light, with a lot of space for humor and unusual landscapes. The first Thor delivered it perfectly: three different settings (Frost Giants World, Asgard, Earth), tension created by Loki's machinations, humor served by Thor, its companions, and Agent Coulson.

This time, the place of Coulson went to Natalie Portman's Jane character, who is not funny. Frost Giants World was substituted by Dark Elves World, and it is lacking visual distinction, judging from the trailer. Instead of a town in desert, we got modern London. All three substitutions don't play well. If Loki was removed from the movie, it would totally fall apart in terms of audience engagement.

Thor: The Dark World will get a better box office than the first installment, but how better it's going to be? Here are some numbers:

*  $ 16,618 per theater -- previous Thor's opening,
*  $ 18,412 per theater -- World War Z's opening, as another action PG-13 movie this year,
*  $ 25,211 per theater -- Skyfall's opening, that happened exactly on second weekend of November last year (an action PG-13 movie also).

The first and the third number are out of reach. I think this movie will top $ 18,000 per theater, but won't cross $ 20,000 per theater. If three substitutions I mentioned earlier were executed better, I'd add $ 2000-3000 per theater.

Shots:

$ 104 mln  --  Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 100 mln  --  ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 97 mln  --  Box Office team
$ 95,5 mln  --  Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 94,7 mln  --  Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
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$ 90 mln  --  Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 89 mln  --  Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 86 mln  --  Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 85,74 mln  --  the official weekend number of the movie  (3841 theaters, $ 22,322 per theater)
$ 84 mln  --  C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 83,6 mln  --  Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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$ 74,32 mln  --  Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013  (3841 theaters, $ 19,348 per theater)

Donald Shanahan, Examiner, didn't post his numbers.

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