This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: The official number!
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IS IT: (A) BEER, (B) BEER, BUDDIES, (C) BEER, BUDDIES, GAME?
This one, The Best Man Holiday, is a comedy R movie, from Universal.
It is also an overdelivered sequel to The Best Man, a comedy from 1999. The first installment made a total run about $ 30M. It is understandable we didn't get the sequel earlier.
We have three movies this year to model the opening for this one:
* The Big Wedding -- $ 2883 per theater, the ensemble comedy around the wedding,
* Baggage Claim -- $ 4455 pt., adventures of a woman looking for love,
* Grown Ups 2 -- $ 11,890 pt., a sequel about growing up and how relationships change with time.
We have two movies from 2011 and 2012 to model this one:
* New Year's Eve -- $ 3714 pt., the ensemble comedy around the event,
* Think Like a Man -- $ 16,694 pt., a comedy about four and a half couples.
I'm sure Think Like a Man's level is out of the question. That movie was centered around girls-versus-boys theme rather (thus reaching girls as audience, not couples), than it was a rom com or a comedy (as this one tries to be, judging from humor in the trailer).
I'm sure this one won't get Grown Ups 2's level. The sequel sentiment is 14 years old, this is just too much. It may even backfire. Any girl can convince her boyfriend to see one girlish movie, but watching two movies in one week time? Too much for an average guy.
I'm sure this one won't break Baggage Claim's level. Will it break New Year's Eve's level? The movie looks smaller in scope (big city vs. the mansion), so less action, more talking. I'm comfortable with $ 3000 per theater.
Shots:
$ 30,11 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2024 theaters, $ 14,875 per theater)
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$ 24,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 24 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 22,3 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 22 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 22 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 21,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 20,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 19 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 17,9 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 17 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 15 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 14,5 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier (new predictions site, welcome!)
$ 6,07 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2024 theaters, $ 3000 per theater)
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