Hello in this new year of 2014.
If you want to see latest predictions of top analysts (including me), please visit the new blog, USBOPredictions2014.blogspot.com.
Here you find predictions from 2013 only.
Thank you!
Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 ---> USBOPredictions2014
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
2013 12 25 – 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, The Wolf of Wall Street
Okay: that was the second-to-last weekend of this year. Anchorman 2 went okay, would go better if didn't open on Wednesday. These two days drove a lot of money off the weekend. American Hustle went okay, proving that Ms. Lawrence still needs to improve her charm on audience. Saving Mr. Banks went okay for this type movie, I shot it right. Walking with Dinosaurs was a joke. I still like the posters, though, very interesting anectode :)
I also got right the limited opening of Inside Llewyn Davis. Looks like I do dig dramas.
-----------------------------------------------
KEANU REEVE_ AND THE QUE_T TO FIND THE MI__ING _E_
This one, 47 Ronin, is an action PG-13 movie, from Universal.
I like the snake lady from the trailer. I like Keanu's beard. I don't think this movie is needed in the marketplace. If it was based on a famous literature book or on a popular comic book, it could stand a chance.
Two/three years ago the movie version of Tekken emerged (Tekken is perceived as the best martial arts game). It enjoyed a short limited run and then went to home market. The latest movie of Mr. Reeves, Man of Tai Chi, met the same fate. Why?
Kung fu, dragons, swords: it feels like a children's tale. Pirates, superheroes, giant robots fighting aliens -- these stories are grounded in real locations. Americans are one of top practical nations in the world, they resonate with that type of practicality, responsible fun. This movie doesn't deliver, it is reflected in my shot.
Shots:
$ 17,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 13,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,91 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2689 theaters, $ 3686 per theater)
$ 9,41 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2689 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (doesn't top 10 mln)
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this movie.
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't make a solid shot (between $15-25M).
-----------------------------------------------
AN ARRIVAL 20 YEARS LATE
This one, Grudge Match, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.
A sentimental approach is probably the second thing, after enjoying children's tales with live actors, Americans don't want to admit openly. This year we got lots of proofs for that: The Last Stand, A Good Day to Die Hard, Escape Plan. I think this movie will open in a financial middle of them. It won't be low, because it doesn't feel forced. Both Stallone and de Niro look happy (as in the poster above), this joy should drive some fans into theaters. Of course, it would do a lot better 20 years ago, when these gentlemen were in a better shape.
Shots:
$ 15,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 15,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13,59 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2838 theaters, $ 4787 per theater)
$ 13,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this movie.
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't make a solid shot (between $15-25M).
-----------------------------------------------
DOES A SOCIETY EVER CHANGE? A CULTURAL ESSAY, OF SORT
This one, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.
In 1947, just after the Second World War, people lived in a great hurry and tension. The world was throwing away a war burden, economy sprung up, the Russian Bear got his head up. Sex sold, men daydreamt about movie girls.
In 2013, just after the financial crash of 2009, people lived in a great hurry and tension. The world was throwing away a crisis burden, economy sprung up, the China Dragon got his head up. Sex sold, men daydreamt about movie and tv girls.
In 1947, movies served as the only source of girls.
In 2013, we don't need to climb a mountain, drive a race car at 100 mph, swim a river full of piranhas. We have internet. We can blog. We daydream in social media.
This movie is about sentiment as much as the previous one. I predict a similar but lower opening. Why lower? Comedy is more interesting, easier to sell, than high brow adventure movie.
Shots:
$ 24,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln -- Box Office team
$ 19,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 19 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 17,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 17 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 16 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 15,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 14,9 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 14 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12,76 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2909 theaters, $ 4388 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10,18 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2909 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)
Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, didn't shoot for this movie.
-----------------------------------------------
I HAVE JUST TOLD THEM A PERSIAN GULF INVESTOR BOUGHT THE COMPANY
This one, The Wolf of Wall Street, is a drama R movie, from Paramount.
This is another movie of Oscars' sucker season. That audience should be a steady one, and go see all movies that participate in an Awards' race this time. So I simply copied the opening of American Hustle, then added a bit as a polite bow to Scorsese and di Caprio.
Shots:
$ 24,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 24,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 23,1 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 23 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 23 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 22,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 22 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 21 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 20,48 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2537 theaters, $ 8072 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 18,36 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2537 theaters, $ 7238 per theater)
Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo, Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart, didn't shoot for this movie.
-----------------------------------------------
I also got right the limited opening of Inside Llewyn Davis. Looks like I do dig dramas.
This week we have four openings. Two more movies have been considered (Justin Bieber's Belive, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom), but they open in less than 1000 theaters. Or, they include Bieber.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
FINALLY: Official numbers!
Paramount finally released official numbers of their movies.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
FINALLY: Official numbers!
Paramount finally released official numbers of their movies.
-----------------------------------------------
KEANU REEVE_ AND THE QUE_T TO FIND THE MI__ING _E_
This one, 47 Ronin, is an action PG-13 movie, from Universal.
I like the snake lady from the trailer. I like Keanu's beard. I don't think this movie is needed in the marketplace. If it was based on a famous literature book or on a popular comic book, it could stand a chance.
Two/three years ago the movie version of Tekken emerged (Tekken is perceived as the best martial arts game). It enjoyed a short limited run and then went to home market. The latest movie of Mr. Reeves, Man of Tai Chi, met the same fate. Why?
Kung fu, dragons, swords: it feels like a children's tale. Pirates, superheroes, giant robots fighting aliens -- these stories are grounded in real locations. Americans are one of top practical nations in the world, they resonate with that type of practicality, responsible fun. This movie doesn't deliver, it is reflected in my shot.
Shots:
$ 17,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 14,2 mln -- Box Office team
$ 13,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 10 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,91 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2689 theaters, $ 3686 per theater)
$ 9,41 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2689 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers (doesn't top 10 mln)
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't make a solid shot (between $15-25M).
-----------------------------------------------
AN ARRIVAL 20 YEARS LATE
This one, Grudge Match, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.
A sentimental approach is probably the second thing, after enjoying children's tales with live actors, Americans don't want to admit openly. This year we got lots of proofs for that: The Last Stand, A Good Day to Die Hard, Escape Plan. I think this movie will open in a financial middle of them. It won't be low, because it doesn't feel forced. Both Stallone and de Niro look happy (as in the poster above), this joy should drive some fans into theaters. Of course, it would do a lot better 20 years ago, when these gentlemen were in a better shape.
Shots:
$ 15,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 15,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 15 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13,59 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2838 theaters, $ 4787 per theater)
$ 13,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 12 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,02 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2838 theaters, $ 2474 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 6 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,02 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2838 theaters, $ 2474 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 6 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't make a solid shot (between $15-25M).
-----------------------------------------------
DOES A SOCIETY EVER CHANGE? A CULTURAL ESSAY, OF SORT
This one, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.
In 1947, just after the Second World War, people lived in a great hurry and tension. The world was throwing away a war burden, economy sprung up, the Russian Bear got his head up. Sex sold, men daydreamt about movie girls.
In 2013, just after the financial crash of 2009, people lived in a great hurry and tension. The world was throwing away a crisis burden, economy sprung up, the China Dragon got his head up. Sex sold, men daydreamt about movie and tv girls.
In 1947, movies served as the only source of girls.
In 2013, we don't need to climb a mountain, drive a race car at 100 mph, swim a river full of piranhas. We have internet. We can blog. We daydream in social media.
This movie is about sentiment as much as the previous one. I predict a similar but lower opening. Why lower? Comedy is more interesting, easier to sell, than high brow adventure movie.
Shots:
$ 24,7 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 20 mln -- Box Office team
$ 19,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 19 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 17,5 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 17 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 16 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 15,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 14,9 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 14 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 13 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 12,76 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2909 theaters, $ 4388 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 10,18 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2909 theaters, $ 3500 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
I HAVE JUST TOLD THEM A PERSIAN GULF INVESTOR BOUGHT THE COMPANY
This one, The Wolf of Wall Street, is a drama R movie, from Paramount.
This is another movie of Oscars' sucker season. That audience should be a steady one, and go see all movies that participate in an Awards' race this time. So I simply copied the opening of American Hustle, then added a bit as a polite bow to Scorsese and di Caprio.
Shots:
$ 24,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 24,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 24,1 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 23,8 mln -- Box Office team$ 23,1 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 23 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 23 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 22,7 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 22 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 22 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 21 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 20,48 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2537 theaters, $ 8072 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 18,36 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2537 theaters, $ 7238 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
2013 12 20 – American Hustle, Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, Inside Llewyn Davis, Saving Mr. Banks, Walking with Dinosaurs
Cold: that is the word to describe movie audience this December. The Hobbit 2 didn't get redemption from the 30 minutes dwarf eating scene, Madea's fans also hardened their hearts to an invitation bell for a Christmas meeting.
A word of wisdom: check twice the way you go bump. If I went down $ 2000 per theater with The Hobbit 2, instead of going up, I would nail it.
But this week that trickiness will go away, because people want be fooled. This holiday spirit of goodwill and the second wave of Oscar suckers' season will make quite significant the total weekend number for five wide openings.
Or... this is the last weekend before Christmas, so traffic at stores' parking lots will be enormous. I wonder will it hurt family movies only? I'd like not, because... and blood drips from my fingers as I type these words... two overrated movies look into quite nice openings.
This weekend we have five openings.
Yes, I do take into account Walking with Dinosaurs. Just see posters and you will know why!
-----------------------------------------------
A SUBTLE IRONY OR AN HONEST WARNING? YOU DECIDE WHAT THE TITLE MEANS!
In a perfect world I see it bombs just like The Counselor did. Lot of stars. Media hype. Aaaaand big splatter on a concrete sidewalk.
In this world... drip, drip, drip... it's going to be as big as The Great Gatsby, one of the movies time forgot.
Shots:
$ 31,09 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2507 theaters, $ 12,400 per theater)
$ 22 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 20 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 19,11 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2507 theaters, $ 7621 per theater)
$ 19 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 19 mln -- Box Office team
$ 18,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 18 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 17,9 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
-----------------------------------------------
$ 17 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 16,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 16,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 16 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
IF THEY PRODUCED IT AS A TWO-PARTER, THE SECOND ONE WOULD BE NAMED MOUSTACHE KILLS AGAIN
This one, Anchorman 2. The Legend Continues, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Paramount.
I can appreciate this movie as a legitimate comedy. I don't enjoy the comic idea, since I haven't grown up in a world plagued by talk-show and news tv hosts. But I can easily understand a lot of people dig it.
PG-13 comedies year after year provide mediocre openings per theater. Rarely they get over $ 10,000 per theater. Anchorman 2 will achieve it, thanks to The Moustache, but the pillow will be small.
$ 46 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 45 mln -- Box Office team
$ 40,4 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 40,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 40 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 37,57 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3507 theaters, $ 10,714 per theater)
$ 37,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 33,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 33 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 32 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 31 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
-----------------------------------------------
$ 26,78 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3507 theaters, $ 7635 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
A DRAMA BEFORE CHRISTMAS -- DOES IT SELL LIKE HOT POTATOES?
This one, Inside Llewyn Davis, is a drama R movie, from CBS Films.
R dramas occupy the same war trench as PG-13 comedies. These are mediocre movies, in financial terms, that don't break into a mass media circuit. This movie lacks star names (especially it lacks Jennifer Lawrence), so I think most people who wanted to see it, they already did. I decided to go a little bigger, because the Coens haven't touch their cinematic eyes.
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7518 per theater -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013
$ 7307 per theater -- the official weekend number per theater of the movie
-----------------------------------------------
IT GOES IN 148 THEATERS ONLY, SO WON'T BE INCLUDED IN THIS WEEK'S SHOTS.
-----------------------------------------------
A DRAMA BEFORE CHRISTMAS -- DOES IT SELL LIKE HOT POTATOES?
This one, Saving Mr. Banks, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Walt Disney.
The question stays the same as for Inside Llewyn Davis. The movie is totally different, more positive, warmer, more Christmassy. But as a lot of PG-13 dramas before, it lacks true audience. It's not a movie for kids, and this time of year parents are either busy with shopping and cooking, or they take kids to see dinosaurs. No easy money then.
$ 14 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 14 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 13 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,4 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 12 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 12 mln -- Box Office team
$ 11,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 11 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 9,9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 9,35 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2110 theaters, $ 4429 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8,86 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2110 theaters, $ 4200 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
SMALL, BIG, LARGE, EFFIN' LARGE
This one, Walking with Dinosaurs, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.
A word of wisdom: check twice the way you go bump. If I went down $ 2000 per theater with The Hobbit 2, instead of going up, I would nail it.
Or... this is the last weekend before Christmas, so traffic at stores' parking lots will be enormous. I wonder will it hurt family movies only? I'd like not, because... and blood drips from my fingers as I type these words... two overrated movies look into quite nice openings.
This weekend we have five openings.
Yes, I do take into account Walking with Dinosaurs. Just see posters and you will know why!
-----------------------------------------------
A SUBTLE IRONY OR AN HONEST WARNING? YOU DECIDE WHAT THE TITLE MEANS!
This one, American Hustle, is a comedy R movie, from Sony.
In a perfect world I see it bombs just like The Counselor did. Lot of stars. Media hype. Aaaaand big splatter on a concrete sidewalk.
In this world... drip, drip, drip... it's going to be as big as The Great Gatsby, one of the movies time forgot.
Shots:
$ 31,09 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2507 theaters, $ 12,400 per theater)
$ 22 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
$ 20 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 19,11 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2507 theaters, $ 7621 per theater)
$ 19 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 19 mln -- Box Office team
$ 18,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 18 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 18 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 17,9 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
-----------------------------------------------
$ 17 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 16,6 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 16,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 16 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
-----------------------------------------------
IF THEY PRODUCED IT AS A TWO-PARTER, THE SECOND ONE WOULD BE NAMED MOUSTACHE KILLS AGAIN
This one, Anchorman 2. The Legend Continues, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Paramount.
I can appreciate this movie as a legitimate comedy. I don't enjoy the comic idea, since I haven't grown up in a world plagued by talk-show and news tv hosts. But I can easily understand a lot of people dig it.
PG-13 comedies year after year provide mediocre openings per theater. Rarely they get over $ 10,000 per theater. Anchorman 2 will achieve it, thanks to The Moustache, but the pillow will be small.
Shots:
$ 46 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 45 mln -- Box Office team
$ 40,4 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 40,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 40 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 40 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 37,57 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3507 theaters, $ 10,714 per theater)
$ 37,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 35 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 33,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 33 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 32 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 32 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 31 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
-----------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------
A DRAMA BEFORE CHRISTMAS -- DOES IT SELL LIKE HOT POTATOES?
This one, Inside Llewyn Davis, is a drama R movie, from CBS Films.
R dramas occupy the same war trench as PG-13 comedies. These are mediocre movies, in financial terms, that don't break into a mass media circuit. This movie lacks star names (especially it lacks Jennifer Lawrence), so I think most people who wanted to see it, they already did. I decided to go a little bigger, because the Coens haven't touch their cinematic eyes.
My shot per theater:
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7518 per theater -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013
$ 7307 per theater -- the official weekend number per theater of the movie
-----------------------------------------------
IT GOES IN 148 THEATERS ONLY, SO WON'T BE INCLUDED IN THIS WEEK'S SHOTS.
-----------------------------------------------
This one, Saving Mr. Banks, is a drama PG-13 movie, from Walt Disney.
The question stays the same as for Inside Llewyn Davis. The movie is totally different, more positive, warmer, more Christmassy. But as a lot of PG-13 dramas before, it lacks true audience. It's not a movie for kids, and this time of year parents are either busy with shopping and cooking, or they take kids to see dinosaurs. No easy money then.
Shots:
$ 14 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 14 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 13 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 12,4 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 12 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 12 mln -- Box Office team
$ 11,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 11 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
-----------------------------------------------
$ 9,9 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 9,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 9,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 9,35 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2110 theaters, $ 4429 per theater)
$ 9 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 8,86 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2110 theaters, $ 4200 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
SMALL, BIG, LARGE, EFFIN' LARGE
This one, Walking with Dinosaurs, is an adventure PG movie, from Fox.
I can picture a dialogue between designers:
-- How much do we want to scare children?
-- It's about dinosaurs, but the hero is a really nice one. Let's all of them be small.
-- But the story needs some tension. One of them should be bigger than others.
-- Kids in Japan love large monsters. The teethy one should be like Godzilla. Tower the whole poster.
-- Since it's Japan, it need to pixellate his crotch with the sun.
-- And we have a winner here.
I can't stop laughing.
Shots:
$ 28,04 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3231 theaters, $ 8679 per theater)
$ 17 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 12,8 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 11,8 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 10 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 9 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 9 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 8,5 mln -- Box Office team
$ 8,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 8 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
-----------------------------------------------
$ 7,09 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3231 theaters, $ 2195 per theater)
$ 6,8 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline, Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, Andy Burns, BiffBamPop, didn't shoot for this one.
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
2013 12 13 – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas
$ 2500 per theater -- this is my official number for any crap movie I will see. Especially thrillers, R dramas, R actions. An opportunity to play this out of my hand doesn't show itself this week, but the next one... I think it does.
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
$ 97 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 87,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 86,79 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3903 theaters, $ 22,237 per theater)
$ 82,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 80 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 78 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 74 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 73,65 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3903 theaters, $ 18,869 per theater)
$ 70,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 70 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
-----------------------------------------------
This weekend we have two openings.
TUESDAY: My shots per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official numbers!
-----------------------------------------------
DOUBLE U-T-F THE DRAGON IS???
This one, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, is an adventure PG-13 movie, from Warner Bros.
I rewatched the trailer of the first part of The Hobbit and found there following memorable moments:
* Galadriel at Rivendell,
* Bilbo fights trolls,
* Bilbo and Gollum.
Also running dwarves through various sceneries and from various beasts.
Not much for three hours of life, right?
As for the trailer for this movie:
* Bilbo and spiders in a wood,
* Evangeline Lilly, Lee Pace, Orlando Bloom (Elves always look good),
* the BurglaHobbit and the Dragon (we actually don't see the Dragon in the trailer, so I'm more than worried if he shows at all in this movie).
Also dwarves walking through various sceneries, and various characters (not just dwarves) fighting with various beasts.
Not much as well, right?
I didn't see the first one in a theater. After seeing the trailer I don't have the urge to see the second part in a theater. It may get a small bump compared to the first one's number, but it won't be bigger than $ 1000-2000 per theater.
* Galadriel at Rivendell,
* Bilbo fights trolls,
* Bilbo and Gollum.
Also running dwarves through various sceneries and from various beasts.
Not much for three hours of life, right?
As for the trailer for this movie:
* Bilbo and spiders in a wood,
* Evangeline Lilly, Lee Pace, Orlando Bloom (Elves always look good),
* the BurglaHobbit and the Dragon (we actually don't see the Dragon in the trailer, so I'm more than worried if he shows at all in this movie).
Also dwarves walking through various sceneries, and various characters (not just dwarves) fighting with various beasts.
Not much as well, right?
I didn't see the first one in a theater. After seeing the trailer I don't have the urge to see the second part in a theater. It may get a small bump compared to the first one's number, but it won't be bigger than $ 1000-2000 per theater.
Shots:
$ 97 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 87,5 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 86,79 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (3903 theaters, $ 22,237 per theater)
$ 82,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 82 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 82 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 80 mln -- Box Office team$ 82 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
-----------------------------------------------
$ 80 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 78 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 75,8 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 75 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop$ 74 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 73,65 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (3903 theaters, $ 18,869 per theater)
$ 70,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 70 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
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-----------------------------------------------
NEXT YEAR, A MADEA'S UNFORTUNATE LION TAMER CAREER, MAYBE?
This one, Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas, is a comedy PG-13 movie, from Lionsgate.
I watched all available previous trailer for Madea movies. I find this one the least interesting. I bet fans of characters in fat suit will drive to see this. They always do. Even if this movie consisted of 5 minutes of the fake-Santa-teases-children joke, and then 85 minutes of silence. This is exactly what the trailer advertises. It is a strange idea, but Mr. Perry probably knows what he is doing.
Bad Grandpa of this year opened with $ 9609. I'd like this movie would do a bit worse per theater. But it opens in 1000+ less theaters, so the crowd will be squeezed better.
Bad Grandpa of this year opened with $ 9609. I'd like this movie would do a bit worse per theater. But it opens in 1000+ less theaters, so the crowd will be squeezed better.
Shots:
$ 33 mln -- Box Office team
$ 31,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 31 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 30 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 30 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 30 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 29 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 28,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 27,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 27 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 25,4 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 21,61 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2194 theaters, $ 9849 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,01 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2194 theaters, $ 7296 per theater)
$ 31,5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
$ 31 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 30 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 30 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 30 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 29 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 28,5 mln -- Damon Houx, ScreenCrave
$ 27,9 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 27 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 26 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 25,4 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 25 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
$ 21,61 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2194 theaters, $ 9849 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
$ 16,01 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2194 theaters, $ 7296 per theater)
-----------------------------------------------
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
2013 12 06 – Out of the Furnace
Like most things in life, the last weekend was a bad one and a good one in the same time. Out of 30 shots only two of them hit the 10 per cent bracket. Homefront got hit twice: by me, and by BoxOffice guys. My numbers for two other movies were the closest ones: for Frozen I shot too low, for Black Nativity I shot too high. The total weekend number for openings proved quite right again: the number stopped at $ 77,57M, the prediction was $ 70-75M.
This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official number!
-----------------------------------------------
$ 8,5 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 8 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 7,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7 mln -- BoxOffice team
$ 6,9 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 6,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 6,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 6,4 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 6,25 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2101 theaters, $ 2973 per theater)
$ 6 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 6 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
-----------------------------------------------
$ 5,22 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2101 theaters, $ 2485 per theater)
$ 5 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
Damon Houx, ScreenCrave, didn't shoot for this one.
This weekend we have one opening.
TUESDAY: My shot per theater!
FRIDAY: All shots!
MONDAY: Official number!
-----------------------------------------------
(low voice) I'M BATMAN. (normal voice) DUDE, I'VE JUST FORGOTTEN THE MASK. CAN YOU TAKE MY WORD FOR IT?
This one, Out of the Furnace, is a drama R movie, from Relativity.
If I got loaded by playing Batman three times, I would do the same thing Christian Bale is doing: low budgeted and high concepted movies. I would also loved to touch Zoe Saldana, under sheets, in a fully professional way.
But Miss Saldana aside, this movie is as interesting as a wooden chair. The trailer offers no involvement for audience, and no reason for a lead character to do things he is doing. Jason Statham stood up the same mountain last week, but Homefront was an action movie, easy for mind, good for popcorn digestion. Here writer(s) tried a lot of different motives: working class, life after military, brotherly love, dying father. But nothing stood out.
Financially, R-rated dramas are sold by the male star in a seat of an actor (Mark Wahlberg in Gangster Squad, Chris Hemsworth in Rush) or of a director (Ben Affleck in The Town). Mr. Bale was a very good Batman, but he lacks true star power. I go with a low number per theater.
But Miss Saldana aside, this movie is as interesting as a wooden chair. The trailer offers no involvement for audience, and no reason for a lead character to do things he is doing. Jason Statham stood up the same mountain last week, but Homefront was an action movie, easy for mind, good for popcorn digestion. Here writer(s) tried a lot of different motives: working class, life after military, brotherly love, dying father. But nothing stood out.
Financially, R-rated dramas are sold by the male star in a seat of an actor (Mark Wahlberg in Gangster Squad, Chris Hemsworth in Rush) or of a director (Ben Affleck in The Town). Mr. Bale was a very good Batman, but he lacks true star power. I go with a low number per theater.
Shots:
$ 8,5 mln -- SaberToothDragon, BoxOfficeFrontier
$ 8 mln -- Perri Nemiroff, Shockya
$ 7,1 mln -- Ray Subers, BoxOfficeMojo
$ 7 mln -- BoxOffice team
$ 6,9 mln -- Andy Burns, BiffBamPop
$ 6,7 mln -- Edward Douglas, ComingSoon
$ 6,5 mln -- Mitch Metcalf, ShowBuzzDaily
$ 6,4 mln -- Sensei White Lotus, BreitBart
$ 6,25 mln -- Mario Ludwinski, USBOPredictions2013 (2101 theaters, $ 2973 per theater)
$ 6 mln -- C.S. Strowbridge, The-Numbers
$ 6 mln -- ThisIsNotMyName, BoxOfficePredictionsOnline
-----------------------------------------------
$ 5,22 mln -- the official weekend number of the movie (2101 theaters, $ 2485 per theater)
$ 5 mln -- Gitesh Pandya, BoxOfficeGuru
$ 5 mln -- Laremy Legel, RopeOfSilicon
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